Me, I'm a climate denier. I deny that climate change is an existential problem. But obviously all the smart people think climate change and fossil fuels are a problem and they are all agreed to Do Something about it. On top of that I suspect that, even if climate change were a problem, the current top-down set of climate programs, from renewable energy to electric cars, is probably making things worse.
I think the big-government administrative state of the last century is a big mistake, partly because every top-down program is a bad mistake.
Why? Because the whole point of top-down is that it doesn't respond to the bottom-up experience on the firing line.
And partly because Letting George Do It has the result of infantilizing the broad middle of society, for people need responsibility, for their lives and for the lives of those around them.
And partly because all government programs are basically handing out swag to regime supporters and that ain't good.
I think that the current conceit of the rulers, that ordinary people are helpless racist-sexist-homophobes, is a monstrous injustice.
But how do we change things? Suppose we agree that all these things are a problem, how do we change the world without destroying it?
Short of revolution, which I don't think is a good idea.
See, I think that the only way things change is in the wake of disaster.
I think that the best possibility for stopping the climate change movement is for widespread failure of the electric system, crazy high gas prices. Lots of electric-car fires. As we saw with the COVID experience, the ruling class can silence its opposition pretty effectively, as disinformation or as armed insurrection. The rulers aren't going to change their policy as a result of a free and balanced discussion of the issues.
I think that the best possibility for reforming the administrative state is for it to run out of money and cause unimaginable hardship among the people that rely on it for jobs, for subsidies, and pensions. Which means all of us.
As for the whole wokey racist-sexist-homophobe thing, it's probably the easiest to fix. But who will be the one to bell the cat?
But I don't see any likelihood of revolution. Looking back at the Age of Revolution, from the Protestants and the 17th century religious wars, and the American and French and Bolshevik revolutions, I'd say they all depended on the rising bourgeoisie and most of all its educated class who were good narrative generators. Today, of course, all the narrative generators are bought and paid for by the ruling class.
Mind you, I think all the rulers are fools. If you ask me, your rulers-for-life like Putin and Xi are setting up the Napoleonic problem of après moi, le déluge. Yes, geniuses, have you thought about what comes after you exit the stage and your yes-men inherit the throne? Whatabout the neo-kulaks in Ukraine? What is Ukraine good for after you've humiliated and routed them, Vlad? And the deep-state-forever is more stupidity: a good ruling class needs to refresh itself with the energy of newcomers from the lower-classes.
How's this for a possible future.
The populist rebellion just keeps on keeping on.
Yep, the ruling class kicked Richard Nixon -- leader of the Silent Majority -- outta here.
The ruling class tried to kick Ronald Reagan -- leader of the Reagan Democrats -- outta here, but didn't quite succeed.
The ruling class kicked Donald Trump -- leader of the deplorables -- into the next room, but stay tuned.
Maybe that's how the world changes. With the ordinary middle class just patiently coming back, decade after decade, undaunted, unruffled, just patiently electing men that represent their interests, and suggesting that the ruling class treats them with respect.
Because we ain't going away.
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