Yes, What Should We Reform?

The Zman is complaining today that back in the 1970s and 1980s our rulers more or less came together to do some reform.

[In] the 1970’s, before Reagan was a realistic option, a consensus was forming among the various elites of society around important reforms.

Mind, you, they still didn't like Reagan. Nevertheless they did do deregulation, as in airlines. And they did decide to fight inflation with Paul Volcker. 

But, when Reagan proposed a balanced spending and revenue cut, the Dems balked. And even though Bill Clinton promised to be a New Democrat the first thing he did was try to push through a government takeover of health care. But, the Zman points out, nobody actually voted for tax reform or regulatory reform. It was an elite thing.

But now? Wall Street seems to be packing the suitcase and heading for the border; business is currying favor with China and India; the military-industrial complex is just trying to stay alive; the political class? Nothing but old men trying to beat back the radicals, populist and woke.

And yet Joel Kotkin can write about how the Dems are a dumpster fire that is blazing higher and higher with nobody calling the fire brigade. What is going on?

Yes, what is going on?

Know what I think? I don't think things have got bad enough yet for conventional wisdom in the elite to move. I'm reading a history of the US occupation of Germany after WWII, and you know what? It was a dumpster fire. Everything we complain about now was going on then: Congress just posturing; various departments unable to decide on anything. President flapping to and fro without really engaging with the issues.

So if we assume that government is always incompetent and quarreling over silly issues, and just shoveling goodies to the supporters as usual, then, obviously, it  does nothing until things are really starting to get out of hand. And getting out of hand they were in the late 1970s.

And it was only when things were really getting out of hand that a Reagan or a Thatcher could get elected.

Know what I think? I think that the Trump win in 2016 was a bit of a fluke. The people got to elect their guy without the permission of the elite. And things were not yet in the dumpster.

The elite could get together and dump Trump in 2020 because it wasn't yet obvious that the elite had totally screwed up. We weren't to the point where the elite was saying to itself: wow, we better get our house in order or we might get voted outta here.

But it could be that by November 2022 and especially 2024 the elite is going to find itself really under the gun, and decide to forget its silly conceits like climate change and systemic racism and wokism, and coalesce around a sensible reform agenda.

But what reform agenda? OK let's do an exercise: a serious reform agenda and a possible reform agenda.

Serious Reform Agenda

1. Convert gubmint pension programs to universal Fidelity/Vanguard accounts.
2. Decredentialize and decentralize and deregulate health care.
3. Move mortgage financing to eventual max50 percent down
4. Make all post-elementary school education into employer-financed apprenticeships.
5. End child labor laws.
6. Hand welfare system over to tech billionaires.
7. Put Big Tech censors in jail.
8. End vote-by-mail.

Yeah, I know. It's craazy.

Possible Reform Agenda

1. Allow people to opt-out of employee side of FICA tax.
2. Mildly deregulate health care
3. Max 75 percent mortgages plus subsidized "down payment" accounts for first-time buyers.
4. Expand education vouchers
5. Tax breaks for social media that doesn't censor.
6. Voter ID.

Now, when you look at my Possible Reform Agenda it doesn't seem too wacko or way out. No like my wacko Serious Reform Agenda that would represent Real Change. It's the sort of agenda that responsible and moderate leaders could get behind without worrying too much about appearing too extreme.

So we really aren't as far away from a decent reform agenda. We just need things to get a bit worse first.