Let's Count Our Midterm Chickens

Yes, I know you're not supposed to count your chickens before they are hatched, but everybody does. And there is this little question of a Midterm Election coming up in a little over a year. In the tradition of "wait until next time" a guy can't help but wonder.

Traditionally, as everybody knows, the president's party tends to lose seats in a midterm, and especially in the second midterm of a two term presidency. Because.

So, guess that the biggest midterm gain was for Republicans since 1900? Any takers?

Yep it was 1938, in the second term of national savior Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Here are the results.

Year	Dem Seats	Dem Gain	Rep Seats	Rep Gain	Ind
1938	262	-72	169	81	4

Imagine! The GOP gained 81 seats and the Dems still had a 93 seat majority.

OK. Enough of that. What was the next best midterm for the GOP?

Exactly, it was 1914 just after Princeton University President Wilson was elected.

Year	Dem Seats	Dem Gain	Rep Seats	Rep Gain	Ind
1914	230	-61	196	69	9

And notice that, even then, the Dems had a 30 seat majority in the House.

OK. Let's get to the third best GOP midterm.

Year	Dem Seats	Dem Gain	Rep Seats	Rep Gain	Ind
2010	193	-64	242	64	0

Wow. We forget what a blowout that 2010 midterm was. Perhaps that's because our noble friends in the media don't like to talk about it too much. Because, after all, if the World's First Black President suffers the third worst midterm blowout since 1900 in the middle of his first term it must be because of racism. Right?

And think of this! Back then, in the dim and distant past, nobody was shouting "Let's Go Brandon" at NASCAR races.

Yes, imagine. Back in the day in 2010 we just had gentlemanly Tea Partiers waving the odd "Don't Tread on Me" flag. Remember how remarkable that felt?

OK, Newt Gingrich, your turn next, with your Contract with America in 1994. But your midterm was only the Fifth Best for Republicans since 1900.

Year	Dem Seats	Dem Gain	Rep Seats	Rep Gain	Ind
1994	204	-54	230	54	0

Remember back in 1994? The deal was that Bill Clinton had run as a New Democrat, a complete moderate, dontcha know. Then he got into office and immediately had a fainting fit. He had No Idea what a mess the federal finances were. So a tax increase was needed. And then he sent Hillary to work on Hillarycare.

Funny how things repeat themselves. Nobody here but us moderates during the campaign but tax and spend to the limit once we get in power.

But at least the Dem lies and obfuscations have got worse over the years. When they were pushing Obamacare they had the decency to lie that we would save money and keep our doctor. Now everything is "infrastructure." Oh, and now the additional spending costs "zero dollars."

So, what will be the result in the midterm in 2022?

I haven't a clue.

But I'd say that anything less that a 40-seat GOP gain in the House would be shameful. A 50-seat gain would be respectable. A 60-seat gain would be "now you're talkin'."

The only fearless prediction I am willing to make is that the Biden presidency will look worse by this time next year.