My Predictions: Election Day 2020

Of course, as usual, the polls show that the Dems will just pull out a win in the presidential election today. But given that the polls are now based on a response rate of 6 percent to each call rather than 50 percent as in olden times, I suspect that the polls are not that reliable.

So we have to go with our gut.

My gut with respect to my gentry liberal neighborhood yard-signs. 

Way back in the aftermath of the 2016 election some feminist group created the #WeBelieve yardsign. You know what I am talking about:

In this house We Believe
Black Lives Matter
Love is Love
Women's Rights are Human Rights
Science is Real
...
Kindness is Everything

Here's an example

Wow! That must be a new one: "Not all cops are bad."

But the point is that clearly, there was a lot of enthusiasm out there in liberal land. Back then.

Then, of course there was the Death of George Floyd in May 2020 and pretty soon every liberal yard in North Seattle had a Black Lives Matter yardsign out front. Hey, you can buy them at the local hardware store!

So, a lot of liberal enthusiasm back then in May.

But there are not that many Biden/Harris signs out front. Just sayin'.

My gut with respect to "oppressed peoples" enthusiasm

Now, if our liberal masters are not that enthusiastic about Joe Biden, whatabout their Clients, the "oppressed peoples" of which we've heard tell? I haven't seen anything on the enthusiasm of blacks, Hispanics, women, etc. I suspect the lack of data points is telling us something.

My gut with respect to Trump voter enthusiasm

On the other hand we are seeing unprecedented enthusiasm for Trump among his natural supporters, the Commoners of these United States. We see remarkable turnouts at Trump Rallies, where Trump extemporizes to the delight of thousands of his fans. We see the incredible Trump Car Parades, that report incredible numbers, like 75,000 cars at a parade in Miami/Dade County; 75 mile-long parades. And of course the Outrage of the Century, the Trump Honor Guard for the Biden/Harris Bus. I may be wrong, but I have never heard of enthusiasm like this before in a US election.

And I believe that scientists agree that enthusiasm equals turnout.

My gut with respect to mail-in voting

Now I believe that, back in the spring, the Democrats all got together with their hive mind and decided that it would be really cool to convert the whole US to mail-in voting, because safety. And cheating. And, of course, within moments their bribed apologists in the media were echoing the New Wisdom.

But I wonder if this was really such a good idea. See, I believe that mail-in voting requires a degree of literacy that many "oppressed peoples" do not possess. And it is not just literacy, but a confidence and familiarity with handling paperwork that matters. So I suspect that mail-in voting will lead to a reduction in turnout among the lower orders.

My gut with respect to the Lockdown

Or the Lockdown. I wonder if the Shelter in Place mentality that Democrats have encouraged in their supporters -- and which women, in particular, have embraced -- is such a good idea when it comes to winning elections. Suppose that turnout in the highly locked-down Democratic states and cities is down? Oops!

I think that the whole purpose of elections and campaigns is to get your supporters all enthusiastic and get the opponents' supporters all pessimistic and sheltering in place. Hey guys!

My gut with respect to "suburban moms"

I don't know if the "suburban woman voter" thing is really a thing or not. But I would say that what trumps women saying Eeuww when reading about Donald Trump reciting how women let him feel them up is women reading about and watching "mostly peaceful protests" in major American cities. Because "women expect to be protected." Now, there are several women of my acquaintance who are not happy about riots in cities. And they have responded by voting for Trump and voting a straight Republican ticket. We will see if this extends outward to women in general.

My gut with respect to the "shy Trump voter."

Is it really such a good idea to have news items about conservatives getting censored and canceled on social media? Because I would say that what the ruling class -- any ruling class -- needs to know is what people are really thinking. They need their District Officers reporting when "the natives are restless." And people won't tell you what they are really thinking if they know all about people like them that have lost their jobs because of their political opinions.

Put it this way, liberals. Like Mayor Daley in 1960, you chaps need to know how many votes you need to manufacture in order to win the election. If there is a whole class of voters that won't talk to pollsters because they are afraid then you chaps won't know where to manufacture votes and how many might be needed. Is that smart? I don't think so. 

Looking at the bigger picture you need to know what everyone is thinking, so you can plan where to spend money and where to send the candidate.

And, of course, the "shy Trump voter" is not just shy, he is mad as hell and he is not going to take it any more. Maybe that's why I am reading this morning about polling stations with lines around the block. I just don't think that heavy turnout means a Biden win. But I could be wrong.

And if there are "shy Trump voters" whatabout "shy Trump students?" Suppose you are a non-political student at one of our select colleges. What do you think about the lefty student activists and the lefty professors that oppress you every day with their political obsessions. Do you join the parade? Do you give up? Do you count the days till graduation? Do you determine that you are never going to vote for a Democrat in your life? You tell me.

My gu with respect to the stock market today

The stock market indexes are up about two percent today. I wonder what they mean by that?

Bottom Line

I've written this again and again. The reason for the current lefty cancel culture is that lefties aren't winning any more. The halcyon days when lefties had FDR in the White House and supermajorities in both Houses of Congress are gone for ever. The glorious days when lefties could create Big New Programs are gone forever. That means that life is hard for the left. They can't just win automatically. And what do people tend to do when life gets too hard? Exactly. They cheat.

But you know what? People don't like it when other people cheat on them. In fact, they hate it.

Just sayin'.