How do we understand today's left? I stumbled into a piece about that yesterday that suggested that
And so I came up with an answer. First, look at this chart of government spending in the US:
And look at this chart of public spending in the UK.
Notice something? Exactly. Spending on government programs ramped up in the first half of the 20th century, but for the last half century spending has been pretty steady, at about 35 percent of GDP in the US and 40 percent of GDP in the UK.
In other words, we probably aren't going to see any more increase in government spending in our two countries. Despite all the Sturm und Drang it seems that government spending has hit its natural limit. I don't pretend to know why, but it sure looks like some natural limit has been reached.
In other words, if you are a leftie, and presumably want to help the less fortunate, the oppressed and the marginalized, you are facing a bit of a problem. There doesn't seem to be any room for more spending on the less fortunate, the oppressed and the marginalized.
Let's look at the four great heads of modern government spending.
First of all there is government pensions, at 6.7 percent in the US and 7.8 percent in the UK. The problem is that a big chunk of that goes to the middle class, especially middle-class government workers. Don't think you are going to be able to take much money away from middle-class government workers and give it to the poor. The recent teacher strike in the City of Chicago, a city already in dire financial straits, should tell you all you need to know. You can't take monies away from the current beneficiaries, deserving or not. They will tear the place down.
What the left should have done, back in the day, was legislate a mandatory savings program for all workers through private sector financial institutions -- e.g. Fidelity and Vanguard -- and leak some monies out of something, somewhere, to take care of the poor. That way it wouldn't take 6-7 percent of GDP, but we would still have a national pension program that looked after itself. But it's too late for that, because if you try to mess with Social Security you will have the wrath of tens of millions of ordinary American retirees on your head.
Then there is government health care, at 7.8 percent in the US and 7.8 percent in the UK. In the UK it provides basic care for everyone, but anyone that is anyone has private insurance because the service at the NHS is pretty poor. In the US we have the fabulously expensive Medicare for seniors supplemented by Medicais for the poor. But what about the people just above the Medicaid threshold? That was the problem with Obamacare, trying to square the circle between Medicare, Medicaid, corporate health plans and individual health plans. If you want to take care of the people in between you practically have to destroy the existing system in order to save it. That's why President Obama had to lie about Obamacare, promising that "if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor" and predicting that the average person would save $2,500 a year in premiums. Not. So as soon as the next Democrat tries to square the circle again they will find huge opposition from people that don't want their existing arrangements messed with, in particular women on Medicare.
What the left should have done, back in the day, was legislate a mandatory health insurance plan, which tried to make health care into a Walmart for Health, and leak monies from somewhere to look after the poor. The idea would be to make sure that routine medical care was no more of an expense than the cost of maintaining a car, but that when you get to the big stuff, just like liability and collision insurance for cars, ordinary Americans don't get wiped out. And you'd have a mandatory program to get people to save for end-of-life medical expenses, something like life insurance. That way it wouldn't take 8 percent of GDP, but we would still have a national health insurance program and a senior health program that basically looked after itself. But it's too late for that, because if you try to mess with Medicare you will have the wrath of tens of millions of ordinary American retirees on your head.
Then there is government education, at 5.3 percent GDP in the US and 4.2 percent GDP in the UK. It seems to me that the current system works pretty well for the upper middle class, who seems to glide through and get to selective colleges. But whatabout the ordinary middle class that really just want to get decent skills for a decent job? And whatabout minority kids from families with little interest in literacy and numeracy? Whatabout kids that trustingly go to college and pile up student debt on some useless degree that doesn't get them a job? Just try reforming education: you run into a brick wall with the tenured college professors and the tenured and unionized K-12 teachers. And so the system is slowly degenerating into a system that does very little education but provides a lot of jobs for Democratic voters.
What the left should have done, back in the day, was legislate a comprehensive apprenticeship and training program mandating employers to provide jobs and education for teenagers starting, say, at age 12. That way the employers would be educating and training young people to qualify for the positions that the employer needed to fill right now, or expected to need to fill in the future. I'd say that employers have a much better idea of the kind of employee they need than government education bureaucrats. And younger kids? I'd recommend home-school, run by the neighborhood women, augmented by governemnt grants for areas with low literacy. But it's too late for that, because if you mess with the college professors and administrators and the union teachers you will be thrown out of office.
Finally, there is government welfare, at 2.1 percent of GDP in the US and 5.7 percent of GDP in the UK (wow, that different!). Obviously these programs have not been too good for the poor as they discourage marriage and discourage getting a job. Thus we have, as reported by Charles Murray in Coming Apart, that for whites only, at the bottom 35 percent the men don't work much and the women don't marry much. I'd say that's a problem, but if you were to make a significant change, by encouraging work and marriage, you would encounter a storm of protest from every lefty in the land and every bureaucrat servicing the poor and every recipient of welfare benefits. Who needs it?
What the left should have done, back in the day, was legislate mandatory membership in some mutual aid society of the kind that flourished in the 19th century. They were run by ordinary people and they naturally responded to the needs of the ordinary people they served. They were doing fine until the left legislated government welfare and put their nations through spine-rattling wars and Great Depresssions. But it's a bit late for that because all the old mutual-aid societies have withered on the vine in the last century, and if you ask a lefty they have no idea that the 19th century mutual-aid societies even existed!
Now, I get it. The purpose of government programs isn't really to provide working systems for pensions, health care, education, and welfare. The purpose of government programs is to win elections by promising loot.
But my feeling is that we have reached the limit of promising loot. That's why the level of government spending in both the US and UK has been pretty level for the past half century. You promise more loot to Group X and Group Y notices that they are going to have to pay for Group X's loot. Sorry Charlie.
So the net result is that we can't go forward and reform the welfare state because a lot of people would have their benefits reduced or at least endangered by any reform. And they will stop any attempt at reform.
So of course our lefty politics has degenerated into "a matter of shallow appearances, or fatuous self-righteousness… a politics in which the beautiful and wellborn tell the unwashed and the beaten-down and the funny-looking how they ought to behave." The lefties had their chance and they blew it; now they are reduced to posturing.
And now there is just about nothing we can do until the whole system comes crashing down.
contemporary Left-wing politics “is better understood as less of a political movement and more as a form of identity or enjoyable past time”. It has become more a “consumption activity” than a way to improve people’s lives[.]Or, if you like,
Left-wing politics has become “a matter of shallow appearances, or fatuous self-righteousness… a politics in which the beautiful and wellborn tell the unwashed and the beaten-down and the funny-looking how they ought to behave”.But why, I thought to myself?
And so I came up with an answer. First, look at this chart of government spending in the US:
And look at this chart of public spending in the UK.
Notice something? Exactly. Spending on government programs ramped up in the first half of the 20th century, but for the last half century spending has been pretty steady, at about 35 percent of GDP in the US and 40 percent of GDP in the UK.
In other words, we probably aren't going to see any more increase in government spending in our two countries. Despite all the Sturm und Drang it seems that government spending has hit its natural limit. I don't pretend to know why, but it sure looks like some natural limit has been reached.
In other words, if you are a leftie, and presumably want to help the less fortunate, the oppressed and the marginalized, you are facing a bit of a problem. There doesn't seem to be any room for more spending on the less fortunate, the oppressed and the marginalized.
Let's look at the four great heads of modern government spending.
First of all there is government pensions, at 6.7 percent in the US and 7.8 percent in the UK. The problem is that a big chunk of that goes to the middle class, especially middle-class government workers. Don't think you are going to be able to take much money away from middle-class government workers and give it to the poor. The recent teacher strike in the City of Chicago, a city already in dire financial straits, should tell you all you need to know. You can't take monies away from the current beneficiaries, deserving or not. They will tear the place down.
What the left should have done, back in the day, was legislate a mandatory savings program for all workers through private sector financial institutions -- e.g. Fidelity and Vanguard -- and leak some monies out of something, somewhere, to take care of the poor. That way it wouldn't take 6-7 percent of GDP, but we would still have a national pension program that looked after itself. But it's too late for that, because if you try to mess with Social Security you will have the wrath of tens of millions of ordinary American retirees on your head.
Then there is government health care, at 7.8 percent in the US and 7.8 percent in the UK. In the UK it provides basic care for everyone, but anyone that is anyone has private insurance because the service at the NHS is pretty poor. In the US we have the fabulously expensive Medicare for seniors supplemented by Medicais for the poor. But what about the people just above the Medicaid threshold? That was the problem with Obamacare, trying to square the circle between Medicare, Medicaid, corporate health plans and individual health plans. If you want to take care of the people in between you practically have to destroy the existing system in order to save it. That's why President Obama had to lie about Obamacare, promising that "if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor" and predicting that the average person would save $2,500 a year in premiums. Not. So as soon as the next Democrat tries to square the circle again they will find huge opposition from people that don't want their existing arrangements messed with, in particular women on Medicare.
What the left should have done, back in the day, was legislate a mandatory health insurance plan, which tried to make health care into a Walmart for Health, and leak monies from somewhere to look after the poor. The idea would be to make sure that routine medical care was no more of an expense than the cost of maintaining a car, but that when you get to the big stuff, just like liability and collision insurance for cars, ordinary Americans don't get wiped out. And you'd have a mandatory program to get people to save for end-of-life medical expenses, something like life insurance. That way it wouldn't take 8 percent of GDP, but we would still have a national health insurance program and a senior health program that basically looked after itself. But it's too late for that, because if you try to mess with Medicare you will have the wrath of tens of millions of ordinary American retirees on your head.
Then there is government education, at 5.3 percent GDP in the US and 4.2 percent GDP in the UK. It seems to me that the current system works pretty well for the upper middle class, who seems to glide through and get to selective colleges. But whatabout the ordinary middle class that really just want to get decent skills for a decent job? And whatabout minority kids from families with little interest in literacy and numeracy? Whatabout kids that trustingly go to college and pile up student debt on some useless degree that doesn't get them a job? Just try reforming education: you run into a brick wall with the tenured college professors and the tenured and unionized K-12 teachers. And so the system is slowly degenerating into a system that does very little education but provides a lot of jobs for Democratic voters.
What the left should have done, back in the day, was legislate a comprehensive apprenticeship and training program mandating employers to provide jobs and education for teenagers starting, say, at age 12. That way the employers would be educating and training young people to qualify for the positions that the employer needed to fill right now, or expected to need to fill in the future. I'd say that employers have a much better idea of the kind of employee they need than government education bureaucrats. And younger kids? I'd recommend home-school, run by the neighborhood women, augmented by governemnt grants for areas with low literacy. But it's too late for that, because if you mess with the college professors and administrators and the union teachers you will be thrown out of office.
Finally, there is government welfare, at 2.1 percent of GDP in the US and 5.7 percent of GDP in the UK (wow, that different!). Obviously these programs have not been too good for the poor as they discourage marriage and discourage getting a job. Thus we have, as reported by Charles Murray in Coming Apart, that for whites only, at the bottom 35 percent the men don't work much and the women don't marry much. I'd say that's a problem, but if you were to make a significant change, by encouraging work and marriage, you would encounter a storm of protest from every lefty in the land and every bureaucrat servicing the poor and every recipient of welfare benefits. Who needs it?
What the left should have done, back in the day, was legislate mandatory membership in some mutual aid society of the kind that flourished in the 19th century. They were run by ordinary people and they naturally responded to the needs of the ordinary people they served. They were doing fine until the left legislated government welfare and put their nations through spine-rattling wars and Great Depresssions. But it's a bit late for that because all the old mutual-aid societies have withered on the vine in the last century, and if you ask a lefty they have no idea that the 19th century mutual-aid societies even existed!
Now, I get it. The purpose of government programs isn't really to provide working systems for pensions, health care, education, and welfare. The purpose of government programs is to win elections by promising loot.
But my feeling is that we have reached the limit of promising loot. That's why the level of government spending in both the US and UK has been pretty level for the past half century. You promise more loot to Group X and Group Y notices that they are going to have to pay for Group X's loot. Sorry Charlie.
So the net result is that we can't go forward and reform the welfare state because a lot of people would have their benefits reduced or at least endangered by any reform. And they will stop any attempt at reform.
So of course our lefty politics has degenerated into "a matter of shallow appearances, or fatuous self-righteousness… a politics in which the beautiful and wellborn tell the unwashed and the beaten-down and the funny-looking how they ought to behave." The lefties had their chance and they blew it; now they are reduced to posturing.
And now there is just about nothing we can do until the whole system comes crashing down.
No comments:
Post a Comment