Obviously, millennarian cults, prophesying the end of the world, are a recurrent human phenomenon. And I suppose it issues from a fairly obvious cause. There are times when a human community is faced by an existential peril and everyone must respond to the call of the leaders, or the group faces oblivion.
This obvious fact surely underlies every politician predicting doom unless we act now. It obviously underlies all the climate change urgency. Irrespective of the validity of climate change claims or of the time scale involved, the only way to provoke a political response is to say that we face doom unless we act now, or at least within the next ten years.
The point is that any period outside about ten years -- or 12 years in some appeals -- is not a peril that requires the community to act now. It is something that can be put off for a year or two. But the point and the internal logic of every political campaign, every activist movement, is that we have to act now.
Actually the call to action is an incredibly risky proposition, because it is really a call to arms, a call to suspend normal life and enroll in the community's army that will face and vanquish the foe. It is only warranted when there really is an existential peril requiring the mobilization of every person in the community. We, who have lived in the aftermath of the two greatest wars in human history, must surely understand how incredibly risky the suspension of normal life and the conversion of all wealth and activities to the fight against the existential peril can be.
We are talking here about human deaths in the millions, not just in the war itself but in the aftermath. I've been reading in the last couple of days a book about the end of World War II that might be ridiculous conspiracy theory or it might be true. Leaving aside the 6 million Jews, there were probably millions of German soldiers and German civilians that died after the end of the war as they were captured and/or expelled from German-settled areas in Eastern Europe. Apart from the question of "who is to blame" there is another point, that once you disrupt normal day-to-day life and normal human work and interaction, people start to die really quickly unless you take heroic action. The US Army, for instance, liked to have about 100 days of food on hand for its forces in the field during World War II. Hmm. I wonder how many days of food are on hand here in the good old USA during the piping days of peace. Somehow I suspect that there are a lot less than 100 days of supplies in the "supply chain." So what would happen if there was a natural or man-made disaster right here, right now?
My point is that in the political world we make a big deal about all the horrible things that are wrong with society, but seldom think about what has to go right -- and what is going right at this moment -- just to keep everything running day to day, so that we all go to work, buy our food, shop for things, drive around, and do 101 things without thinking that are in fact essential for the day-to-day continuance of life as we know it.
I was thinking about this as I penned yet another look at the Democrat's Failure of Prophecy situation. Here they are, prophesying the end of the world, stopping the usual corrupt progress of politics-as-usual so they can harass and harm the president and also bring all racists sexist and homophobes to book. But meanwhile, life must go on! Otherwise we all die!
And what a remarkable thing it is that normal life does go on. And people make the products, serve the consumers, cook the food, make the babies, feed the children, look after the aged, and all that continues irregardless of the pantings and the shoutings on the hustings and in the TV studios.
My point is that probably we should be listening a lot less to the predictions of disaster and merely keep on keeping on with the daily routine. For the daily routine that delivers food and light and energy and life and health and all the rest is a moment-to-moment miracle, and must be carefully weighed against any proposed frightful peril that requires us to suspend all usual activity and instead fight the foe.
You better have a real foe, Mr. We Must Act Now, or millions of people will die for nothing.
This obvious fact surely underlies every politician predicting doom unless we act now. It obviously underlies all the climate change urgency. Irrespective of the validity of climate change claims or of the time scale involved, the only way to provoke a political response is to say that we face doom unless we act now, or at least within the next ten years.
The point is that any period outside about ten years -- or 12 years in some appeals -- is not a peril that requires the community to act now. It is something that can be put off for a year or two. But the point and the internal logic of every political campaign, every activist movement, is that we have to act now.
Actually the call to action is an incredibly risky proposition, because it is really a call to arms, a call to suspend normal life and enroll in the community's army that will face and vanquish the foe. It is only warranted when there really is an existential peril requiring the mobilization of every person in the community. We, who have lived in the aftermath of the two greatest wars in human history, must surely understand how incredibly risky the suspension of normal life and the conversion of all wealth and activities to the fight against the existential peril can be.
We are talking here about human deaths in the millions, not just in the war itself but in the aftermath. I've been reading in the last couple of days a book about the end of World War II that might be ridiculous conspiracy theory or it might be true. Leaving aside the 6 million Jews, there were probably millions of German soldiers and German civilians that died after the end of the war as they were captured and/or expelled from German-settled areas in Eastern Europe. Apart from the question of "who is to blame" there is another point, that once you disrupt normal day-to-day life and normal human work and interaction, people start to die really quickly unless you take heroic action. The US Army, for instance, liked to have about 100 days of food on hand for its forces in the field during World War II. Hmm. I wonder how many days of food are on hand here in the good old USA during the piping days of peace. Somehow I suspect that there are a lot less than 100 days of supplies in the "supply chain." So what would happen if there was a natural or man-made disaster right here, right now?
My point is that in the political world we make a big deal about all the horrible things that are wrong with society, but seldom think about what has to go right -- and what is going right at this moment -- just to keep everything running day to day, so that we all go to work, buy our food, shop for things, drive around, and do 101 things without thinking that are in fact essential for the day-to-day continuance of life as we know it.
I was thinking about this as I penned yet another look at the Democrat's Failure of Prophecy situation. Here they are, prophesying the end of the world, stopping the usual corrupt progress of politics-as-usual so they can harass and harm the president and also bring all racists sexist and homophobes to book. But meanwhile, life must go on! Otherwise we all die!
And what a remarkable thing it is that normal life does go on. And people make the products, serve the consumers, cook the food, make the babies, feed the children, look after the aged, and all that continues irregardless of the pantings and the shoutings on the hustings and in the TV studios.
My point is that probably we should be listening a lot less to the predictions of disaster and merely keep on keeping on with the daily routine. For the daily routine that delivers food and light and energy and life and health and all the rest is a moment-to-moment miracle, and must be carefully weighed against any proposed frightful peril that requires us to suspend all usual activity and instead fight the foe.
You better have a real foe, Mr. We Must Act Now, or millions of people will die for nothing.
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