Why Palin Really Matters

Never mind the fun-and-games of the Palin candidacy. What started with the pure joy of watching a politician that likes to speak from the podium and who drives our liberal friends nuts has now gone nuclear.

With the pigs-and-lipstick incident we now have young women at rallies with gigantic lipsticked lips, “Read My Lipstick” signs, and Palin Is Great.

But enough of fun and frolic. Let’s get to a serious discussion of the issues from Jay Cost.

Republican Margin of Victory/Defeat: Selected Demographic Groups 1996-2004 1996 2000 2004 White Men +9 +24 +25 White Women -5 +1 +11 African Americans -72 -81 -77 Hispanics -51 -27 -9 Overall -8.5 -0.5 +2.4

You can see what it means. If McCain loses the comfortable majorities in white men and white women, he will lose to the overwhelming pro-Obama vote among African Americans. If won’t be -77% this time. How about -95%?

Then, of course, there is the interesting question of the Hispanic vote. We are hearing all the time that Hispanics and blacks don’t like each other. So what does that do to the Hispanic vote this time out? Because the fact is that, even when he won by overwhelming majorities in white men and white women, George W. Bush only just pulled out a win in 2004 by a thin 2.4%.

You can see that the key to a Republican win in 2008 is to keep, and even expand the majority of white women.

Larry Kudlow has an interesting take on the Palin “hockey mom” ad-lib at the convention.

Palin’s really saying: Don’t tread on me. Don’t try to intimidate me. I am a strong, tough mom who is determined to succeed in politics.

And it seems that Sen. Barack Obama, with his clumsy “lipstick on a pig” remark, has played right along with the Palin challenge.

And in the process, he is boosting Palin, getting more and more people to pay attention to her, and motivating more and more white women to come out and vote for her.