A Supreme Court with Three Liberal Women

Today Steve Sailer is analyzing the question of black woman Kentanji Jackson Brown on the Supreme Court. And it's all about whether she is really up to snuff, because Bell Curves by race.

Sailer argues that to be a top-flight lawyer you need to be absolutely out on the edge of the Bell Curve for intelligence.

The race disparity in talent is particularly glaring in the practice of law because much of it is so dependent on raw brainpower... But the meat and potatoes of lawyering—writing contracts—is basically a medieval form of coding. Your job is to anticipate what could go wrong in a deal and write if-then-else statements to protect your client from those eventualities.

So, if Brown isn't up to snuff on the medieval coding, what then?

Well, I think that if Brown gets on the court and joins the other two liberal women, Justices Kagan and Sotomayor, what you get is three rather below-average judges. But not necessarily because Bell Curve.

For sure Justices Breyer and RBG is that they were pretty smart. Wrong on everything? Sure. Crazycakes? Got it. But they were up to the challenge of writing cunning liberal Supreme Court opinions that further the agenda and the hegemony and the domination of the liberal ruling class.

How do you get to do that? Well, I'd say you need quite a bit of appeals-court experience, knowing, from experience, how to push your political agenda.

But what about the three liberal girls? I think that they won't be so smart as their predecessors. But I don't think that their raw intelligence is the big issue. 

I think that the big problem for the three liberal girls is that, having been elevated because racism-sexism-homophobia they don't have the political and collegial smarts to make a difference on the Court. That means they won't be as good at persuading their conservative brethren and sistren into compromise decisions that protect the liberal monuments of civil rights, women's rights and LGBT rights.

Of course, for you and me those liberal monuments are monuments of monstrous injustice, but that is another story.

The point is, to me, that to argue in conference, and gather majorities on the court, and write monumental Supreme Court decisions you need to have a strategic mind, and a collegial personality. Much more than a mind that is good at medieval coding.

I'd say you need that more than pure intellectual horsepower.

So I think that having three liberal girls on the Supreme Court who basically got there because they were the right race and gender is not good strategy.

In my view liberals are going to need the best lawyers and committeemen and persuaders in the world to protect their glorious liberal legal monuments in the Autumn of the Liberal Ages.

Instead they are putting average personalities on the Court that really don't have the chops to defend their achievements and conduct a defense in depth that slows the conservative advance until the glorious new liberal era dawns.

From Changing the Future to Changing Next Week

Last week I wrote generally about "How Do You Change the Future?" 

How? Well, you wait for disaster. You wait for climate change policies to wreck the economy, for the entitlement programs to fail even worse. For the racist-sexist-homophobe pejoratives to make people angry.

But that is all pie in the sky.

Now we are going to see how it works "on the ground."

Because right now we are seeing the collapse of the climate change narrative because the Russian invasion of Ukraine is upending the global energy market and causing gas and oil prices in the US to double. Yes, climatistas, no doubt the world will come to an end with a 1.5 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures in a century or so. Meanwhile, what about the contractor using gasoline for his truck that he uses in his construction business?

Because right now we are seeing general inflation in the economy because of the Federal Reserve's money printing and the government's COVID handouts.

Because right now ordinary Americans get to see how lefty peaceful protesters and lower-class criminals get released on bond -- or even no bond -- prior to trial, but January 6 protesters are held in solitary confinement for months.

And today I was reading that Democratic donors are shifting from contributing to congressional races in 2022 to contributing to Democratic governor races. They figure that Congress in 2022 is a lost cause, but they have to hang onto some governorships.

“My entire donating life has always been centered around Congress, but I really think that if you care about democracy, you need to worry about these governors’ races,” said Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic donor and lobbyist. “This is critical for us to win in 2024.”

Oh no! Democracy! I wonder what "democracy" means to a lobbyist.

I was re-reading about how in 1934 -- just in time for the mid-terms -- the FDR administration went after businessmen. They sicced the Justice Department on businessman and electric utility magnate Samuel Insull. And kept going after former Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon on federal income tax avoidance charges: again and again, even after he was dead. Gosh, those New Dealers sure were nice guys. And by frightening all the businessmen, I'm sure they really helped get the economy back on its feet.

I wonder if the next GOP president will go after the Dem grifters and cancel culturists and wokeys and teach them a lesson?

Actually, I hope not. Because if the ordinary middle class is going to be setting the political agenda in the future, I hope that the ordinary middle class is not interested in revenge and retribution. The ordinary middle class is not that interested in power. Unlike our liberal friends, for whom politics is life.

But it is interesting to wonder how the leaders of the ordinary middle class will treat the rest of America, if they get the power. I hope that they behave better than our liberal friends have behaved over the last century.

But maybe not. Because there is no politics without an enemy: that's what Nazi Carl Schmitt says, and I believe him. And, really, what do you do to an enemy? At the very least, you teach them a lesson. If you are a Democrat, you sue them and impeach them and harass their aides and supporters. If you are a Commie you send them to the camps.

I hope that we can be better than that.

Best of Times, Worst of Times

 If you are a racist, sexist, homophobe, climate denier like me you realize that nothing can change until it gets worse. "The worse the better," said Lenin.

Because nothing changes until it's broken. And that is as it should be. We may have the stupidest rulers in the world, but as long as things seem copacetic to the average bear, things ain't gonna change.

Obviously, the Biden administration is changing that. And so is Vladimir Putin in Russia and Ukraine.

The Biden administration, in its agenda that presumably was hammered out when Biden was handed the Democratic nomination in March 2020, has pushed major handouts to "oppressed peoples" and pedal to the metal climate change and termination of fossil fuels.

My guess is that this will turn out to be the great political and economic mistake of the ages.

And just to prove that the world is gonna change we have the Ukraine crisis, which has forced Europe to face up to its stupidities on the climate front.

God knows, of course, what stupidities the politicians will commit on the Russia-Ukraine front.

Victor Davis Hanson pulls out the "irredentist" card to explain Russia's adventure in Ukraine. After the end of a glorious empire, politicians are always trying to get back to the glory. Whether Greeks trying to get back the Byzantine Empire, or Mussolini trying to get back the Roman Empire. Or Putin trying to get back the Soviet Empire. Irredentism usually fails, but not before the rest of us pay a pretty big butcher's bill.

The problem is, of course, that just because the hard left of the Democrat party and the climateers get given their walking papers it doesn't mean that we now decide to do the right thing: get the welfare state down to size and frack baby frack and start to build modular nuclear plants.

Oh and rework the debt economy so that people and corporations can't load themselves up with low down payment loans. Because a highly leveraged society is a very fragile society.

In the past few years I have also paid a lot of attention to what women input into the public square. As in going 100 percent for the COVID lockdown and in sending money to Ukraine to help the refugees.

Really, after a century of the educated elite in power it's time for a change. Not because the educated elite is a particularly bad or foolish ruling class, but because any ruling class tends to look after itself and its supporters and not pay too much attention to how the rest of the world is making out.

Hey, why be surprised? The whole point of the rule of the educated elite is over / under politics, where the rulers mobilize the lower class against the middle class. It works politically when the under class is a majority of the voters. But when the ordinary middle class becomes a majority of the voters, maybe not so much.

I was reading Dominic Cummings on his Substack this morning and he is suggesting parallels with 1914. Only, for him, our rulers and leaders are worse than the rulers and leaders of 1914.

How Do You Change the Future?

Me, I'm a climate denier. I deny that climate change is an existential problem. But obviously all the smart people think climate change and fossil fuels are a problem and they are all agreed to Do Something about it. On top of that I suspect that, even if climate change were a problem, the current top-down set of climate programs, from renewable energy to electric cars, is probably making things worse.

I think the big-government administrative state of the last century is a big mistake, partly because every top-down program is a bad mistake. 

Why? Because the whole point of top-down is that it doesn't respond to the bottom-up experience on the firing line. 

And partly because Letting George Do It has the result of infantilizing the broad middle of society, for people need responsibility, for their lives and for the lives of those around them. 

And partly because all government programs are basically handing out swag to regime supporters and that ain't good.

I think that the current conceit of the rulers, that ordinary people are helpless racist-sexist-homophobes, is a monstrous injustice.

But how do we change things? Suppose we agree that all these things are a problem, how do we change the world without destroying it?

Short of revolution, which I don't think is a good idea.

See, I think that the only way things change is in the wake of disaster.

I think that the best possibility for stopping the climate change movement is for widespread failure of the electric system, crazy high gas prices. Lots of electric-car fires. As we saw with the COVID experience, the ruling class can silence its opposition pretty effectively, as disinformation or as armed insurrection. The rulers aren't going to change their policy as a result of a free and balanced discussion of the issues.

I think that the best possibility for reforming the administrative state is for it to run out of money and cause unimaginable hardship among the people that rely on it for jobs, for subsidies, and pensions. Which means all of us.

As for the whole wokey racist-sexist-homophobe thing, it's probably the easiest to fix. But who will be the one to bell the cat?

But I don't see any likelihood of revolution. Looking back at the Age of Revolution, from the Protestants and the 17th century religious wars, and the American and French and Bolshevik revolutions, I'd say they all depended on the rising bourgeoisie and most of all its educated class who were good narrative generators. Today, of course, all the  narrative generators are bought and paid for by the ruling class.

Mind you, I think all the rulers are fools. If you ask me, your rulers-for-life like Putin and Xi are setting up the Napoleonic problem of après moi, le déluge. Yes, geniuses, have you thought about what comes after you exit the stage and your yes-men inherit the throne? Whatabout the neo-kulaks in Ukraine? What is Ukraine good for after you've humiliated and routed them, Vlad? And the deep-state-forever is more stupidity: a good ruling class needs to refresh itself with the energy of newcomers from the lower-classes.

How's this for a possible future.

The populist rebellion just keeps on keeping on. 

Yep, the ruling class kicked Richard Nixon -- leader of the Silent Majority -- outta here.

The ruling class tried to kick Ronald Reagan -- leader of the Reagan Democrats -- outta here, but didn't quite succeed.

The ruling class kicked Donald Trump -- leader of the deplorables -- into the next room, but stay tuned.

Maybe that's how the world changes. With the ordinary middle class just patiently coming back, decade after decade, undaunted, unruffled, just patiently electing men that represent their interests, and suggesting that the ruling class treats them with respect.

Because we ain't going away.

Yes, How Do We Best Help the Poor?

When I drive to the gym in Seattle's Ballard / Ship Canal commercial neighborhood, I notice that many of the businesses have blocked off the street parking with concrete Jersey Barriers. The Jersey Barriers are put there to discourage the homeless from camping there.

Yes. The homeless. What Do We Do about the homeless?

And whatabout the drug epidemic, in general: fentanyl, etc.?

And is the current Democratic plan -- headlined by President Biden in his SOTU March 1, 2022 -- for more government assistance for child-care, pre-K, and health care a good idea?

I mean by this, do these kinds of services benefit Americans in the long term?

Then, I read, the 20,000 aides and staffers in Congress are thinking of forming a labor union. Yes, how has gubmint employee unions worked out so far, sports fans?

And let us leave the question of private-sector labor unions alone, even though my feeling is that labor unions typically thrive in an economic downturn when workers resist pay-cuts from their employers that are, of course, desperately trying to keep their businesses afloat.

See, I think that, probably, the huge amount of monies collected and handed out by government is a terrible idea.

Oh yes, partly because all government spending is a flat out distribution of loot and plunder to regime supporters.

But also because We the People should be doing most of the stuff that government does, on our own time and out of our own pockets, from education, to helping the poor, to dealing with the homeless.

And health care! Supposing health care was run by a combination of Amazon and church ladies?

Or. Suppose health care was organized the same way as auto repair?

And unions. See, I think that unions give people the idea that they have lifetime jobs. Sorry: ain't no such thing. That's what happened to the white working class. They had Good Jobs at Good Wages until all of a sudden, they didn't. Part of that was that government-regulated employer-worker relationships had helped unions bid labor rates way above market. Part of that was that workers comfortably fluffed up in a union job don't feel the need to keep their skills up to date.

Education? I don't know what kids should be learning today, and how they should be doing it, but I do know that when the government schools are all invested in renaming schools and critical race theory training, then Houston We Have a Problem.

Oh yes. Then there's the Science™. All the fashionable people know that the latest thing is "emergence." The world doesn't work by top-down administration but by creative "emergence" of new ideas and techniques and social and economic relationships.

But when so many things are administered as government programs, there is no opportunity for "emergence" to emerge. Did I mention my Four Laws?

Socialism cannot work because it cannot compute prices (Mises). 

The administrative state cannot work because the Man in Washington does not have the bandwidth to run the economy (Hayek). 

Regulation does not work because “regulatory capture” (Stigler). 

Government programs cannot work because you can never reform them (Chantrill).

This is not rocket science. 

Here in America we have the white working class dying of despair. We have black "aspiring rappers" stealing and shooting each other and spongeing off baby-mamas. We have the educated elite swanking around in credentialed sinecures. And we have government with a debt of way over 100 percent of GDP.

Something's got to give.

Biden SOTU: Wokeyness to the Tune of FDR

I watched the SOTU last night, although I didn't hear much of the Ukraine part, because I was cooking dinner. The impression I got was that President Biden was achieving miracles with moral support for Ukraine.

But whatabout the rest of it? It was weird, when you think about it. Because it was the usual glorious handout of loot and plunder to the supporters, rendered with Biden's shtick that he's just good old Lunchpail Joe from Delaware.

Only, the Dems aren't the party of the lunchpail set any more.

And the handouts were, first, the pre-K and child-care and abortion and health care proposals. Plus a shoutout to LBGTQ and good old Joe having the backs of the Trans people. And, of course, 500,000 charging stations.

So really, the supporters of the Democrats are single mothers and LGBT activists and greenies.

I know. We already knew that.

OK. So there was a lot of misdirection on the inflation front, with Joe telling us that he is fighting for lower costs. On insulin and prescription drugs. And the outrage of shippers raising their prices! OMG!

Then I was having coffee with a retired friend who really still cannot figure out where Trump came from. I rehearsed the whole populist thing from Nixon and the Silent Majority to today's MAGA and trucker protests.

But the thing is that if you are an ordinary educated person in the US you will know nothing about this, because the MSM -- regime media -- is clueless about it too.

Seriously. To me, if you are the ruling class, you need to know exactly what the peasants are up to, and why. Instead, it seems to me, our rulers are blindsided by the populist rebellion. With Trudeau at the Battle of the Bouncy Castle fighting against Nazis. And our rulers blathering on about "armed insurrectionists."

It is easy for us armed insurrectionists to attribute evil intent to our rulers. But if you apply Hanlon's Razor, and

never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity,

then the likelihood is that the Dems really don't get it. They live inside their DC and regime-media bubble and the Tea Party, the deplorables, the Trump effect, the trucker convoys are basically inexplicable.

Remember, our rulers today have a universal explanation for everything. It's racism-sexism-homophobia. Always. Everywhere.

Hey rulers! Do you think that maybe the natives are restless because your economic policy and your race policy and your energy policy and your border policy and your policing policy and your mandate policy area all really hitting ordinary people right in the solar plexus?

But they don't get it, and neither do their supporters. We had some liberal friends over for dinner a couple nights ago, and one of the women breathed something about "disinformation." And today I read that in California Democrats are pushing legislation to crack down on "disinformation."

These people have no idea that all governments everywhere are stupid and incompetent, lie about everything, and then insist that anyone that disagrees is an enemy of the people.

Well, on to November.

Hey Vlad: Otto von Bismarck Here

I get it, that Vladimir Putin wants to restore the glory of the Great Russian Rus. But I wonder if he is going about it the right way.

See back in the day, Otto von Bismarck had a similar problem. The German speaking world was all divided up into numerous cities and states and principalities. It was all called the Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation,headed by a Holy Roman Emperor, but so what?

Of course, Bismarck had the example of Frederick the Great of Prussia who snitched Silesia from the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the 1740s. But that didn't create a German nation. It was just the monarchs of Central Europe diddling with border provinces.

Bismark's genius was to understand how to create a nation. You must unite all the parts of the nation by getting them all to fight a war against someone else.

So first, in 1862 Bismarck fought and won a war against the Danes (!). Just to show that he could do it.

Then in 1866 Bismarck defeated Austria in the Austro-Prussian war. After the war he created a North German Confederation out of 21 northern German states.

Then in 1870 Bismarck defeated France in the Franco-Prussian war. After the war he created a united Germany by persuading the southern German states that had fought against France to join the Reich.

Of course, after Bismarck came Kaiser Bill, Wilhelm II, and he was a complete fool that threw away all that Bismarck had built up.

Do you see, Vlad, how your attempt to create a united Russia by humiliating and conquering Ukraine is the complete opposite of what Bismarck did?

Do you note, Vlad, how Bismark's war with Austria meant that Austria ended up outside the German Reich that he created in his three wars. So, do you think that, maybe, defeating Ukraine is perhaps not the way to unite a glorious new Russia?

Now, I don't pretend to know how to unite all the states of the former Soviet Union into a new united Russia. And I don't know what country you would invade to unite all the divided Russians into one nation. That's above my pay grade.

I'm just noting that you are not going about Russian reunification the way that Bismarck did. And Bismarck was perhaps the smartest politician of the 19th century.

There is another possibility. Back in the day, you could certainly say that there was a good argument for uniting the German people. Your Russkies and your Frogs -- and even the Swedes -- had been marching all over the German lands for centuries.

But Russia? Why, we know that Rule One is Don't Invade Russia, signed Napoleon and Hitler. So I would say that the various Russian and Russian-related republics could live perfectly happily forever after without having to unify. Because who wants to invade Russia from the north, south, or west? Nobody.

Now, there is an argument that down the road the Chinese might decide that they have an ancient and sacred right to occupy and rule eastern Siberia. In that case, Vlad, you might need some friends from the west. 

Just sayin'.