Monday, September 18, 2006

The Devout American Who Wrote "The Path to 9/11"

It’s a free country, like they say. So it is interesting to read what Cyrus Nowrasteh has to say about “The Path to 9/11.”

Remember Cyrus? He was the right-wing nut who wrote the script as a deliberate right-wing plot to discredit the Clintons.

After all the effort we put into the script, he writes, it would have been nice if the critics had done a bit of due diligence. (In your dreams, pal!)

Much was made of his association with Rush Limbaugh (he’s met him twice) while ignoring his association with Olvier Stone. After all, if he wrote a script criticizing the Clintons he must be on the other side, right?

In July a reporter asked if I had ever been ethnically profiled. I happily replied, "No." I can no longer say that. The L.A. Times, for one, characterized me by race, religion, ethnicity, country-of-origin and political leanings--wrongly on four of five counts. To them I was an Iranian-American politically conservative Muslim. It is perhaps irrelevant in our brave new world of journalism that I was born in Boulder, Colo. I am not a Muslim or practitioner of any religion, nor am I a political conservative. What am I? I am, most devoutly, an American. I asked the reporter if this kind of labeling was a new policy for the paper. He had no response.

There’s a concept for you: a devout American.

And the thing is: What was all the fuss about? Do the Democrats really think they can get us to forget that they were asleep at the switch in the 1990s, along with everyone else?

I guess they really think that they can spin anything. And maybe they are right. We still think, thanks to liberal Whig history, that FDR saved the nation in the Great Depression. Only a few people think that FDR kept the nation mired in misery for ten long years because of stupid economic policy.

But with the end of the liberal media monopoly the job is a lot more difficult than it used to be.

Despite intense political pressure to pull the film right up until airtime, Disney/ABC stood tall and refused to give in. For this--for not buckling to threats from Democratic senators threatening to revoke ABC station licenses--Disney CEO Rober Iger and ABC executives deserve every commendation.

Yeah, let’s hear it for Disney. They took the punches and the political pressure but still put the show on. That takes a lot of courage.


Sticking to the Ground Game


Do you wonder why Republicans keep pulling rabbits out of a hat on election day? Donald Lambro says it’s the “ground game.”

And it was the ground game that helped Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee win his Republican primary against Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey.

[T]he Republican National Committee pumped $400,000 into the race on a voter identification-turnout drive that brought a record number of voters to the polls -- and gave the embattled Mr. Chafee his 54 percent to 46 percent victory

Of course, it’s one thing to spend $400,000 to bring out 62,000 GOP primary voters in one of the smallest states in the Union. The question is: can the GOP coaches make the ground game work nationally in the general election?

Sitting on a cash hoard of about $30 million, the RNC plans to replicate what they did in Rhode Island in about three-dozen House races and six or more Senate contests where Republican candidates are vulnerable.

Still, defense is defense. When do we get to switch to offense?

Friday, September 15, 2006

Jobs and Inequality

We’ve all heard the news that the US median income isn’t going up. Some commentators insist that things have been going downhill ever since 1973.

But David R. Henderson says just a minute. Take a look at the US Census data, particularly Table 3. Distribution of Households by Selected Characteristics within Income Quintiles: 2005.

Throughout the report, U.S. households are categorized by the quintile (fifth) they're in. In 2005, the lowest quintile had incomes of up to $19,178 and the highest quintile had incomes exceeding $91,705. People often picture families at all quintiles looking pretty much alike except for income and ethnicity. But that picture is false.

You see in one quintile, 64.2 percent of householders didn’t work at all during the year. And in another quintile 73.0 percent of householders “worked full-time, year-round.”

Now, which would you think is which?

Exactly. In the lowest quintile nearly two-thirds of householders didn’t work at all. And in the highest quintile they worked like dogs. Actually, in the highest quintile 76.3 percent of households had two or more earners, while in the lowest quintile 58.7 had no earners.

Here are the numbers, extracted from US Census Bureau Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States, 2005. Table 3.



 



















































Extract from Table 3. Distribution of Households by Selected Characteristics within Income Quintiles: 2005
Characteristic Lowest Quintile “Poor” Highest Quintile “Rich”
Number of Earners
No earners 58.7% 2.6%
One earner 35.9% 21.1%
Two or more earners 5.5% 76.3%
Work Experience of Householder
Worrked full-time, year-round 14.0% 73.0%
Worked part-time or part-year 21.9% 15.7%
Did not work 64.2% 11.3%

 


Makes you think, doesn’t it.

Democrats Do Too Stand for Something


Republicans have been enjoying for some time the idea that Democrats don’t stand for anything. It goes along with the idea that Republicans are thinkers and Democrats are feelers.

Even Peggy Noonan agrees, sort of. She criticizes the Democrats for obsessing about Bush.

[I]f you're going to turn away from [Bush], you'd better be turning toward a plan, and the Democrats don't appear to have one.

Actually, the Democrats do have a plan. It’s just that they can’t talk about it. Rush Limbaugh understands them when he says that Democrats can’t admit who they are, because if they admitted who they are they couldn’t win the support of the American people.

The Democrats’ plan is to defend their turf. The problem is that it is huge. After a century of the welfare state they are strategically extended like the Germany Army in Russia in 1942.

You want to know how huge? Take the government share of GDP today and substract the government share in 1930. Start with all the New Deal legislation, all the Great Society legislation. Then add the huge expansion in education and health care. All this is Democratic dollars and Democratic votes.

If you are a Democrat your job is to defend this. All of it.

That’s why Democrats aren’t much interested in growing the economy. They aren’t much interested in fighting for freedom, justice, and the American Way. They have concerns much closer to home. They must fight to defend the funding for the government programs that keep them in yeasty Victorian houses, Toyota Priuses, and soulful weekend retreats.

Don’t forget that President Bush’s Ownership Society is a strategic project, a Schwerpunkt, aimed at the heart of the Democratic project. If it ever gets seriously off the ground then the American people will start to say: why do I need all these Democrats eating their heads off at my expense? What have they done for me lately?

When we say that the Democrats don’t have a plan, we mean that they don’t exactly know how to counter the encroaching Ownership Society, except to oppose it. All of it.


Thursday, September 14, 2006

Google's For-profit Foundation

When Bill Gates set up his charitable foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, I was disappointed.

Here was a guy who had revolutionized the world of the computer, but when it came to philanthropy he was just doing routine stuff.

Of course, he had to, because liberals were all over him like a cheap suit asking him why he wasn’t giving it all away yet.

But the Google guys, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, are different. Their foundation, Google.org, will be a for-profit foundation. What a concept!

Of course, the agenda for their foundation is depressingly blah—tackling “poverty, disease and global warming.” Oh dear. As if everyone and his brother isn’t already spending billions on all this.

Give me a billion or two and I would reinvent education, health care, and the social safety net on the model of the Road to the Middle Class. But hey, that is just my crazy idea.

Guess who is going to be director of Google.org. None other than Dr. Brilliant.

No, seriously! According to Katie Hafner in The New York Times,

Dr. [Larry] Brilliant, a 61-year-old physician and public health expert, has studied under a Hindu guru in a monastery at the foothills of the Himalayas and worked as a Silicon Valley entrepreneur.

Aparently he applied for the job with an email to info@google.com, but they didn’t pay any attention.
Then “Dr. Brilliant was awarded the TED Prize, an award given at the annual Technology, Entertainment and Design conference” and Google invited him to give a talk at the company.

The rest, as they say, is history.

Wal-Mart and the 3.3 Million Job Gap


Even conservative pundit George Will is joining the Up With Wal-Mart campaign with a piece about the Wal-Mart store just outside the city limits of Chicago. He writes about the resentful Wal-Mart shopper who didn’t get a job at the new store because

the person doing the hiring "had an attitude." So why is the woman shopping here anyway? She looks at the questioner as though he is dimwitted and directs his attention to the low prices of the DVDs on the rack next to her.

But the big question is not old economy jobs at Wal-Mart but the on-going mystery about the 3.3 million job gap at the Department of Labor. If you have one of those missing jobs, writes Ashby M. Foote III,
“contact Secretary Elaine Chao at www.dol.gov.”

The 3.3 million job gap is the difference between the job count in the Department of Labor’s Household Survey and its Establishment Survey.

[T]he BLS uses two monthly sample surveys conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. For the top-down view, 160,000 businesses and government agencies are contacted for the Current Employment Statistics (CES), which is referred to as the “payroll” or “establishment” survey. This is the “headline” number, and it is the survey focused on by the press and the financial markets. For the bottom-up perspective, 60,000 households are contacted for the Current Population Survey (CPS), better known as the “household” survey.

Problem is that there is are 3.3 million jobs more in the Household Survey and nobody can figure out why.

Foote suggests that we should look to Chris Anderson and his book The Long Tail. According to Anderson there are three forces that are creating jobs at small “boutique” businesses, the ones that don’t show up on the radar of the Establishment Survey

Force 1: The democratization of the tools of production. (The obvious example is the PC as a tool for publishing and multimedia.)
Force 2: The democratization of the tools of distribution. (For instance, the combination of the PC and the Internet makes everyone a distributor).
Force 3: Connecting supply and demand. (Search filters and feedback loops like those found on Google, iTunes, Amazon, and Netflix help niche content find interested buyers and users.)

Still, you have to respect Wal-Mart and its 1.3 million old-style jobs. Because it is taking people with an attitude and little in the way of job skills and making them into productive members of the twenty-first century society.

Pity it didn’t have a job for the lady in Chicago.


Wednesday, September 13, 2006

The Transformation of North Korea

You gotta read this stunning analysis of North Korea, “The Natural Death of North Korean Stalinism,” by Andrei Lankov.

He writes that the regime of Kim Jong Il is imploding as its Stalinist system has been slowly relaxing by the natural difficulty of keeping extreme political repression going. In the last decade, though, this process has accelerated as a result of economic collapse in 1991-95 and famine in 1996-1999.

The three big factors facilitating this process include:

Information: It used to be that people could only get their hands on radios, and that when doing military service. But now prosperous North Koreans can buy used DVD players and VCRs smuggled in from China. What they like to view are South Korean TV soap operas. These TV programs give the lie to the idea that 7 million South Koreans are unemployed and live in unimaginable poverty. In fact, North Koreans are non-plussed that South Korea is apparently richer than the border area of China—which looks pretty rich to them.

Economic System: When the Stalinist economy broke down the North Korean people had to develop an informal capitalist economy. It had all the bad features of informal economies everywhere including rapacious moneylenders and necessary bribes to officials. But people had to adapt or starve.

Diminishing Political Control: The economic crisis of the 1990s has led to the demoralization of the party cadre. Now they are willing to “turn a blind eye to certain phenomena, especially if monetarily rewarded to do so.” Anyway, since survival is achieved for most North Koreans by small-scale business activity, what’s the point of listening to powerless officials. The social hierarchy has changed too with formerly persecuted Japanese-Koreans and Chinese acquiring wealth and status through their foreign connections and businesses.

It’s an amazing story, and we will read more of it in the coming months and years.