Yesterday President Trump had a negotiating session with EU bigwig Jean-Claude Juncker, and at the end of it the twain announced that they were stepping back from the brink of trade war. Looks pretty good, eh? Not to the The New York Times:
And just in case you didn't get the message here's another piece from the Times: "Europe Avoids a Trade War with Trump, But Can It Trust Him?" I can imagine how the Times feels. I feel the same way about liberals. We've avoided a civil war with liberals so far, but can we trust them? Certainly not if it comes to the instinctive resort to pejoratives like racist, sexist, homophobe by our liberal friends. And today the Times reports that the Mueller investigation is probing Trump's tweets. Boy! No there's a problem!
Never mind about the lads in the bar at the Conventional Wisdom Club. What about the Chinese?
What do the Chinese think about Trump? They have been talking to the Financial Times, and this is what they say they think, according to Marginal Revolution. First off, they "are awed by his skill as a strategist and tactician[.}" No kidding! I thought he was a blowhard reality show star!
Want some more?
Only, of course, things were different in the Cold War. The idea, if you recall, was to "contain" the Stalinist Soviet Union, a country, for you AOC fans, that killed at least 10 million in the Ukraine famine, and millions more in the Gulag, etc. So our military and economic policy was founded on the idea of embracing Europe with our military strength and building it back up after the devastation of war. Because it benefited us.
But because the ruling class is usually composed of idiots and time servers, there was no sensible redefinition of our global strategy after the Cold War was well and truly won in 1989 and the Soviet Union cried Uncle, and last week what looks like millions of Russians observed the centenary of the assassination of the Czar.
So what sort of military alliances should we have? Yes, you got me. I really don't have a clue.
So what sort of economic trade deals should we have? Hey, you got me. I really don't have a clue.
But here we have the Chinese that say that they think that President Trump is in the middle of an episode of "creative destruction" to renegotiate the terms of trade in our favor.
Of course, they may not really think that. They may, inscrutable Orientals that they are, be playing a much deeper game than that. They may think that Trump is going to crash and burn on his present course, and so they want to encourage him to drive off the cliff. Who knows?
But my guess is that the Chinese ruling class are idiots, just like our ruling class are idiots. Their ruling class seems to be reverting to pre-20th century strategy with their Belt and Road initiative, which is already running into problems with its client countries failing to make payments. Is that a good idea? Well, my guess is probably not. Most all government programs are a mess, and just waste resources for little gain. And I expect that the Belt and Road initiative, which is a return to the ancient imperial Chinese policy of client states, is no different.
And our ruling class is just as clueless. Steven Pinker's Enlightenment Now is really just an apology for today's liberal ruling class. Yeah, everything is great and a tribute to reason and science and humanism. Except that, when we finally get to Chapter 21: Reason, we learn that people are totally tribal and rationalize anything if their tribe believes in it. So Pinker waves a hand over the welfare state and declares it to be good. Like 25 percent of government spending on the poor. Well, he would, because his tribe is all in favor of the welfare state.
OK. But in Captain Swing, our worthy lefties Hobsbawm and Rudé (rhymes with Egbert Sousé, know what I mean?) excoriate the Brits of 1830 for humiliating and abandoning the agricultural laborers to the Poor Law and the Speenhamland plan. So what does it mean to abandon the white working class to the tender mercies of the global economy, Stevie? So what does it mean to have millions on millions of poor people out of the labor market and not contributing to the national economy? I'd call that a bloody failure. But Pinker just regards it as proof of our compassion, or rationality, or something.
Same thing on foreign policy. What about NATO? What is its purpose now that Russia is no longer a world-conquering behemoth? And now that Germany is back as No.1 in Europe by a country mile and a bratwurst? And why are we obsessing on Russia, Russia, Russia, when if anyone is pushing for World Domination it is China? Hey, I'd say it is time for a president that hasn't been marinating in the bar at the ruling class Conventional Wisdom Club for most of his adult life.
Here's my take. Most of the time, in my view, politicians, bureaucrats, academicians, and activists are idiots. That means that they tend to bumble into foolish mistakes that we the people have to pay for.
But occasionally you get a guy that really stands out from the crowd. You can tell he is exceptional because the usual suspects think he is not quite out of the top drawer. Bismarck. Lord Salisbury. OK, so those guys were out of the top drawer. But then Calvin Coolidge, "weaned on a pickle," Margaret Thatcher, the grocer's daughter, Ronald Reagan, an "amiable dunce."
Is Donald Trump out of the Coolidge, Thatcher, Reagan drawer? We don't know. Call back in about ten years and we'll know.
Of course, by then I might be dead.
It was hard to say, given Mr. Trump’s bluster and unpredictable negotiating style, if the agreement was a genuine truce or merely a lull in a conflict that could flare up again. Twice, Mr. Trump’s aides have negotiated potential deals with China, only to have him reject them and impose further tariffs. Cutting these trade barriers to zero would be an extraordinarily complex political challenge on both sides of the Atlantic.Oh dear oh dear. That Trump! No chance for a quick one before lunch at the bar of the Conventional Wisdom Club when he is around!
And just in case you didn't get the message here's another piece from the Times: "Europe Avoids a Trade War with Trump, But Can It Trust Him?" I can imagine how the Times feels. I feel the same way about liberals. We've avoided a civil war with liberals so far, but can we trust them? Certainly not if it comes to the instinctive resort to pejoratives like racist, sexist, homophobe by our liberal friends. And today the Times reports that the Mueller investigation is probing Trump's tweets. Boy! No there's a problem!
Never mind about the lads in the bar at the Conventional Wisdom Club. What about the Chinese?
What do the Chinese think about Trump? They have been talking to the Financial Times, and this is what they say they think, according to Marginal Revolution. First off, they "are awed by his skill as a strategist and tactician[.}" No kidding! I thought he was a blowhard reality show star!
Want some more?
In Chinese eyes, Mr Trump’s response is a form of “creative destruction”. He is systematically destroying the existing institutions — from the World Trade Organization and the North American Free Trade Agreement to Nato and the Iran nuclear deal — as a first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more favourable to Washington.No kidding! I mean, why would any rational and educated and humanist Enlightenment Now person want to renegotiate the world order? Hey, if it was good enough for FDR and Alger Hiss at Yalta, and Harry Truman and George "Containment" Kennan in the Cold War, what's not to like!
Only, of course, things were different in the Cold War. The idea, if you recall, was to "contain" the Stalinist Soviet Union, a country, for you AOC fans, that killed at least 10 million in the Ukraine famine, and millions more in the Gulag, etc. So our military and economic policy was founded on the idea of embracing Europe with our military strength and building it back up after the devastation of war. Because it benefited us.
But because the ruling class is usually composed of idiots and time servers, there was no sensible redefinition of our global strategy after the Cold War was well and truly won in 1989 and the Soviet Union cried Uncle, and last week what looks like millions of Russians observed the centenary of the assassination of the Czar.
So what sort of military alliances should we have? Yes, you got me. I really don't have a clue.
So what sort of economic trade deals should we have? Hey, you got me. I really don't have a clue.
But here we have the Chinese that say that they think that President Trump is in the middle of an episode of "creative destruction" to renegotiate the terms of trade in our favor.
Of course, they may not really think that. They may, inscrutable Orientals that they are, be playing a much deeper game than that. They may think that Trump is going to crash and burn on his present course, and so they want to encourage him to drive off the cliff. Who knows?
But my guess is that the Chinese ruling class are idiots, just like our ruling class are idiots. Their ruling class seems to be reverting to pre-20th century strategy with their Belt and Road initiative, which is already running into problems with its client countries failing to make payments. Is that a good idea? Well, my guess is probably not. Most all government programs are a mess, and just waste resources for little gain. And I expect that the Belt and Road initiative, which is a return to the ancient imperial Chinese policy of client states, is no different.
And our ruling class is just as clueless. Steven Pinker's Enlightenment Now is really just an apology for today's liberal ruling class. Yeah, everything is great and a tribute to reason and science and humanism. Except that, when we finally get to Chapter 21: Reason, we learn that people are totally tribal and rationalize anything if their tribe believes in it. So Pinker waves a hand over the welfare state and declares it to be good. Like 25 percent of government spending on the poor. Well, he would, because his tribe is all in favor of the welfare state.
OK. But in Captain Swing, our worthy lefties Hobsbawm and Rudé (rhymes with Egbert Sousé, know what I mean?) excoriate the Brits of 1830 for humiliating and abandoning the agricultural laborers to the Poor Law and the Speenhamland plan. So what does it mean to abandon the white working class to the tender mercies of the global economy, Stevie? So what does it mean to have millions on millions of poor people out of the labor market and not contributing to the national economy? I'd call that a bloody failure. But Pinker just regards it as proof of our compassion, or rationality, or something.
Same thing on foreign policy. What about NATO? What is its purpose now that Russia is no longer a world-conquering behemoth? And now that Germany is back as No.1 in Europe by a country mile and a bratwurst? And why are we obsessing on Russia, Russia, Russia, when if anyone is pushing for World Domination it is China? Hey, I'd say it is time for a president that hasn't been marinating in the bar at the ruling class Conventional Wisdom Club for most of his adult life.
Here's my take. Most of the time, in my view, politicians, bureaucrats, academicians, and activists are idiots. That means that they tend to bumble into foolish mistakes that we the people have to pay for.
But occasionally you get a guy that really stands out from the crowd. You can tell he is exceptional because the usual suspects think he is not quite out of the top drawer. Bismarck. Lord Salisbury. OK, so those guys were out of the top drawer. But then Calvin Coolidge, "weaned on a pickle," Margaret Thatcher, the grocer's daughter, Ronald Reagan, an "amiable dunce."
Is Donald Trump out of the Coolidge, Thatcher, Reagan drawer? We don't know. Call back in about ten years and we'll know.
Of course, by then I might be dead.
No comments:
Post a Comment