Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Why Is It So Cold? Maybe the Sun?

Everyone knows that the polar bears are in trouble and Greenland is about to melt because of all the global warming.


In fact, though, the world is in the middle of a cold snap, according to geophysicist (and, presumably climate change denier) David Deming.


South America this year experienced one of its coldest winters in decades. In Buenos Aires, snow fell for the first time since the year 1918...


Unexpected bitter cold swept the entire Southern Hemisphere in 2007. Johannesburg, South Africa, had the first significant snowfall in 26 years. Australia experienced the coldest June ever... In New Zealand, the weather turned so cold that vineyards were endangered.


What could be going on? Well, scientists say that it could be the Sun. Right now it’s at the end of a 22 year sunspot cycle, Cycle 23, and scientists are wondering when the next cycle, Cycle 24, is going to start.


That’s important because in previous centuries the earth’s climate has been cold when the sunspot count was low and warm when the sunspot count was high. The most famous period of low sunspot incidence was the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1710. That period has another name: The Little Ice Age. If you look at the link, you will see a nice little graph which labels our current period since 1950 the “Modern Maximum.”


Could that explain the increase in global temperatures.


Right now, this minute, on December 19, 2007, there are no sunspots on the sun. That’s because the one visible sunspot group has just rotated out of sight. You can check up on the sun here.


There is some indication that the next sunspot cycle has begun. The first two weeks of December showed an increase in sunspots.


What we don’t know is how active the new cycle will be. Some people think that sunspot intensity is driven by the position of the major planets like Jupiter and Saturn in the same way that tides on the Earth are driven by the Moon.


But it might be prudent to plan on a cold winter this year. Just to be on the safe side.

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