Jay Cost: It's Still Hard For Dems to Win in 2006

Budding political scientist Jay Cost takes another look at the 2006 mid-term elections. He reiterates his previous analysis. It is going to be difficult for Democrats to do a 1994 and nationalize the election like Newt Gingrich and Tom DeLay did 12 years ago. Here’s why

1. It is very difficult to beat incumbents. House members are political professionals. They are expert at taking credit for good news, and dodging responsibility for bad news.
   
2. There aren’t that many open Republican House seats, only 5 so far. In 1994 there were 22 Republican open seat victories.
   
3. In 1994 Republicans ran against Democratic incumbents in Republican-leaning districts who had voted for tax increases, gun bans, and national health insurance. A total of 22 Democrats lost their seats. But this year there haven’t been any bills where Republicans have voted against their constituents. “Unlike Democrats in the 103rd Congress, Republicans in the 109th have not voted against their constituents on salient issues.”
   

Since it is very difficult to beat incumbents, and since the Republican Congress has not forced its members to vote against their constituents, Democrats face a much harder task in 2006 than Republicans faced in 1994.

This is not to say that the Democrats cannot take the House, or that they cannot find a way to "nationalize" the election. It is only to say that 1994 cannot be their model. There are too many differences - in both the broader political environment and the actions of incumbent Republicans. To take the House, the Democrats are going to have to develop and implement a new strategy, one that we have never seen before.

And it must be said that there is no sign of that strategy yet.