Hispanics Joining the Middle Class and GOP

Back in the day, you'll remember, the Democrats were going to own the future, The Emerging Democratic Majority, courtesy of Judis and Teixeira. It would be composed of the educated, women, the young, and minorities.

I have a different theory, my reductive Three Peoples theory, that says that the upper class of creatives and the credentialed tends to vote its interest with the Democrats, the middle class of responsibles that go to work and obey the law tends to vote Republican because its interest is a growing and stable economy, and the lower class of subordinates tends to vote Democrat because that's who is offering loot to the lower class.

If you walk around my überliberal neighborhood in north Seattle, the heartland of Rep. Pramila Jayapal's congressional district where she won 83 percent of the vote in 2020, you notice that there are a ton of Hispanic roofers and construction workers and yard-maintenance workers slaving away all day, every day. No blacks to be seen. OK, a couple.

In my racist-sexist-homophobic way, I interpret this to mean that Hispanics are working their way up into the middle class. And blacks are not.

Therefore I would say that we should expect Hispanics to be moving in the the Republican Party in battalion strength. But blacks, not so much.

Hey, I was writing about this eight years ago when the Republicans won Congress back from the Dems in Obama's second midterm. And what I said was that the Democrats were turning the Democratic Party into the Black Party. And that would alienate Hispanics and Asians (except for high-caste South Asians like Chair of the Progressive Caucus Jayapal). And there was this:

Hispanics think blacks are lazy. That's when they are not actually expelling blacks from their neighborhood.

Not to mention, I wrote, that liberals would not do themselves a favor with anti-police rhetoric. Because the middle class expects the police to protect them from lower class thugs, from the days of Dickens' Bill Sikes to today's gangbangers shooting into a crowd when they've been dissed. 

Now comes Andrew Abbott at AMAC writing about "The Vanishing Permanent Democratic Majority" and the "precipitous decline" in Biden support.

Nowhere is this clearer than with Hispanic Americans, who now disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing as President by a whopping 60%-26% margin.

And even black support is down from 85 percent to 63 percent.

The reason for this, of course, is that liberals have persuaded themselves that the Republican Party is a "white" party.

The belief among liberal elites is that the Republican Party exists explicitly to service and promote the policies and principles of “white America” and that, since the 1960s, the party has been rooted in white isolationism, nativism, and resentment of minorities. Thus, as the country becomes more diverse, the white Republican vote will gradually be destroyed via diversity, or so the theory goes.

As opposed to my theory that the Repuiblican Party is now the party of the ordinary middle class. Actully, I"d say that the Republican Party is the party of ordinary people whereas the Democratic Party is the party of "special people," special because of education, credentials, or victimhood.

And most of those victim are "fake" victims, dontcha know, from LGBT to corporate snowflakes to Muslims. They are either members of the ruling class in good standing or the pets, the Little Darlings, of the ruling class.

And, of course, if you are an ordinary middle class person you might get "resentment of minorities" that get the special care and feeding of the ruling class. But that would be wrong.

And let me tell you: if you have been noticed by the ruling class and declared to be a victim, and richly rewarded for voting Democrat, You Are Not A Victim, cupcake.

And then Trump. Liberals knew that Trump could never get minotiry votes. But he did, and then in 2020

Not only had Trump held onto his minority support, but he actually won a more significant share of black male and Hispanic voters than he did the first time. 

As I say, there is no mystery or conspiracy theory needed to explain this. The Republican Party is the party of the ordinary middle class. And it looks like Hispanics are rapidly ascending, by hard work and enterprise, into the middle class. Ergo, they are voting Republican.

 And, I suspect, Hispanics and to a lesser extent, blacks, are being royally screwed by the Biden inflation.

But don't tell Rep. Jayapal.

Philosophizing about the Next Regime

Everyone who isn't a deep-state liberal is thinking about how we ditch the present regime, which goes by the name of liberal democracy but is anything but.

Many of the alternative philosophies are efforts to imagine a new philosophy without thinking about the practical process of getting there. Zman criticizes libertarianism and also the revival of the Catholic idea of "integralism" for this. As he says:

Integralism is the principle that the Catholic faith should be the basis of public law and public policy within civil society. 

But what if the majority of people aren't Catholics? Then you don't have a chance of basing society on a Catholic basis. Then Zman goes on to critique the history of the Right in the 20th century, even the deification of the Founders and their Constitution. The Consitution was a political compromise by practical politicians, he writes, not a sacred truth.

But the Constitution was very much a thing of its time, representing the rising bourgeoisie against the old regime of feudal monarchy.

In fact, I would say that the politics of the last 500 years has always involved a rising class wanting to take its rightful place in the public square and its power.

Let us consider Henry VII in England as simply a feudal faction beating up on the old regime and taking power.

What did the Tudors achieve? Well, they spawned the Elizabethen era that we regard, even now, with a golden glow.

But a century and a half later the English Civil War definitely involved the rising middle class, its Puritan ideology, and its refusal to pay "ship money" for the king's foreign advantures.

What did the Puritans achieve? Well they got the Dutch to invade and they taught the Brits how to finance a Second Hundred Years War against the French and make a mighty British Empire.

And the French Revolution definitely involved a rising class of thinkers and middle class inspired by another ideological movement, the Enlightenment of Voltaire and Rousseau and Montesquieu.

What did the French Revolution achieve? Well, it led to the end of France as the top dog in Europe. Sorry about that.

And the 20th century's socialism and administrative state definitely involves a rising class of would-be educated supervisors of society and the economy and the culture inspired by Marx and Fabianism and the idea that evolved, educated people should supervise the chaotic injustice of industrial capitalism. And teach the Robber Barons, the malefactors of great wealth and the economic royalists a lesson.

What did the evolved educated class achieve? I'd say two world wars, monstrous regimes in Russia and China, and a program of domestic lootinug unparalleted in human history. What else to you call a state spending 35-50 percent of GDP this year and every year on government loot and plunder?

You would think, wouldn't you, that there would be people starting to get restless unde the boot of the evolved, educated class, and you would be right.

I'd say that this is a rising movement of the ordinary middle class. We only really understand this movement through the pejoratives of the current ruling class, as "populists" and "racists" and "white oppressors" and "gun nuts." But what they are is ordinary middle class people with ordinary middle-class lives and they want a society and social norms that value ordinary middle-class people and their ordinary lives of obeying the law, going to work, and following the rules.

And I say that we have seen three presidencies in the US already that have represented these people: Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Donald Trump. That is why all the right people have all agreed that Nixon was a monster, Reagan was an amiable dunce, and Trump was a Russian stooge. All agreed?

I say that the current woke-ism is actually a sign that the evolved, educated ruling class is in trouble. A ruling class that's firmly in the saddle doesn't have to resort to censorship and canceling and purging of heretics from the Cathedral of education and media. You only get reigns of terror and virtue and J6 Committee show trials when things are going wrong for the rulers. And they "cain't stand 'im" as a famous American philsopher once said.

But whatabout the Zman's concern for a ruling philosophy or political formula that the new regime will base its power upon?

Honestly, I don't know. But you know what I do think? I think that once the new regime is in place then all kinds of unconnected facts and people and ideas will come together in a new narrative. And it will all be obvious. And everyone will say that they saw it coming all along.

What Happens When We Don't Respect the Rulers

I am reading a gigantic history of the French Revolution, Citizens by Simon Schama, and right now I am in the middle of the events of 1789, just before the fall of the Bastille, where the Third Estate -- i.e. the middle class -- is testing its muscles against the other Estates of the Estates-General called by King Louis XVI to Do Something about gubmint revenue.

But I must admit I don't really get why the authority of the King has cratered, why the King can't just say Shut Up Peasants and make it stick like King Justin de Trudeau of Canada.

I suppose the reason is that, back in the 1780s everyone, from the princes of the realm down to the average lawyers, had read and learned and inwardly digested the essence of the Enlightenment -- chaps like Voltaire, Rousseau, Montesquieu, Buffon and Denis Diderot -- and therefore the medieval forms and processes of the French monarchy didn't have the authority to rule. Of course, maybe if they had a war to fight...

Now I am also reading a piece by Jeffrey A. Tucker at Epoch Times where he is going through the Come to Jesus moments of the last couple of years: "How the Pandemic Response Changed My Thinking" in several ways, as in

1. The Role of Information It's not enough to have information out there, as in the internet. People can still grab the wrong idea and screw things up, from politicians to experts to the people.
2. Trust in Big Tech Back in the day it seemed like Big Tech "had a libertarian ethos." Not any more, as Big Tech amplifies the regime narrative and "censorship and cancellation became the norm."
3. Administrative State Revealed The Administrative State Rules! "At times, it seemed like the legislatures and even the courts were utterly powerless or too cowardly to do anything."
4. The Issue of Inequality We have a "coercive social system that favored the professional class over the working class." Imagine having lockdowns during COVID if ordinary workers had a voice.Yeah, it's not the capitalists vs. the workers, but the credentialed vs. the workers.
5. The Mob Think mask-shaming, etc. It teaches us that tyranny is "about a whole-of-society takeover by a manufactured mania."

But, thinking back to the French Revolution, there obviously have to be several fractures in the body politic for "change" to occur.

Notice how our liberal friends use the rhetoric of revolution in their notion of "change" to refer to ordinary accumulation of power by the current ruling educated elite. We are not talking about that kind of "change," dear liberal friends. We are talking about anything that promotes helpless horror in the educated ruling class.

For instance, if this year we not only have Gov. DeSantis whacking Dis-en-ey for its wokiness by removing its special tax situation for Dis-en-ey World. I'm sure our liberal friends are in shock

And suppose the January 6 Committee hearings turn into a bust, and raise the wrong kind of questions, like just who were those people that seemed to encourage the crowd at the Capitol to enter the building but mysteriously have not spent the last year in the DC Gulag in solitary confinement? Could they have been FEDS? And just how many weapons were the "armed insurrectionists" wielding? As opposed to the chappie with a gun arrested early this morning close to the home of Justice Kavanaugh.

And suppose that Republicans win really, really big in November. Right now it seems that the conventional  wisdom is that they will gain about 30 seats to yield a 40 seat majority. But suppose they win 60 seats. Or, Gaia forbid, 80 seats like in 1938?

And suppose the inflation drags on and there's another housing crash. And a recession. On your watch, Joey.

And suppose American women all get to feeling that the government doesn't protect them?

And what if Elon Musk decides not to buy Twitter because bots?

Thing is: I really don't want everything to come unglued. Millions of people will suffer. And yet, usually there is no other way. Because there is no other way for the rulers to lose the Mandate of Heaven.

You'd think that wise rulers would know they were screwing up and have the decency to hand over the reins of power to someone else. But somehow they never do until it is too late. I wonder why.

Prediction: The J6 Committee Hearings Won't Move the Needle

Let us concede that the Watergate hearings of 1973 were a tactical masterstroke. They got rid of the monster populist Richard Nixon and all who sailed with him.

And then Democrats won the 1976 election, which would be a normal change election after two presidential terms with the other party in the White House.

Then the Democrats lost it in 1980 because stagflation (and actually probably because, a day late and a dollar short, the Fed was finally starting to fight inflation).

Stagflation. Gosh, that sounds familiar. I wonder why.

So tactically, the Dems won one in 1973. Strategically, it was a wash. And I would like to suggest that, maybe, if there hadn't been a Watergate hearings then Ronald Reagan would not have won in 1980. Just sayin'.

So, what exactly is the J6 Committee hearing all about? To blacken the Republican Party? To "get Trump?" To flush out all the lizards of the Trump administration? To stop the Proud Boys in their tracks? To win the next presidential election?

See, it would be one thing if Trump were still in office, and presiding over double-digit inflation, and, in the opinion of all right-thinking people, had completely messed up the COVID response. But you chaps got rid of him, by fair means or 2000 Mules foul, back in November 2020. So your Dem partisans got the red meat they wanted already. And GOP partisans are all energized by the Big Lie -- you know, the one about the 2020 election begin completely above board, nothing to see here and if you object you are an armed insurrectionist.

Oh, and this just in from The New York Times. "Fox News Doesn't Plan to Carry Jan. 6 Hearings Live." Waat? How Dare They!

And that's another thing to consider, Dem partisans. Back in 1973, all good people were shocked, shocked by the Watergate break in and coverup. And there was only one narrative available, on CBS, NBC, ABC, PBS. Today, GOP voters don't believe a word they hear from MSNBC and CNN and The New York Times. And with the advent of cable and streaming, people just aren't watching the three networks any more. Not like they used to. They have important streaming series to binge on.

Thse other thing, which I am sure you strategic geniuses have all thought about, is that if you "get Trump" with the J6 Committee then you have cleared the path for Ron DeSantis in 2024. Are you really sure you want that, in preference to having DeSantis and Trump duke it out? Frankly, I'd say that you don't want DeSantis to be the GOP nominee in 2024. That guy seem to have a tactical and strategic sense that even Bismarck would respect.

And there is this. When gas prices have doubled in a year, I dare say that the average "punter" -- as the Brits say -- isn't that excercised about armed insurrectionists burning down the Capitol. He's worried about the cost of filling up his F-150 truck.

And I'd say that beating up the oppostion is not good politics. Not in the long term.

See.you in November, old chap.

When They Start to Cheat

When do people start to cheat, financially? Typically, not till they are going broke. When do they start cheating politically? When their perfect plan isn't working any more.

So when our Democratic friends spend half a billion dollars getting ballots to the ballot drop-off box, and when Michael Sussmann walks free but Peter Navarro gets put in chains. And when Democratic voters think that the Republican Party is no longer a party but a rebellion. And when the Census Bureau suddenly discovers a big mistake in the 2020 Census that just happens to benefit one party in several states...

Well, it all adds up, and it adds up to Democrats realizing that they are in a heap of trouble, going broke, politically. Of course, we are talking about politics here, and "there is no politics without an enemy." So, the trouble is not that Democrats have gone bat-sh*t crazy on climate and race and crime and spending, and realize: wow, we really screwed up. No, it's the other guys that did it: the climate deniers, the racist-sexist-homophobes, the gun lobby, and billionaires that don't pay taxes.

And it is fascinating for me to read about various Democratic individuals and groups that have literally No Idea how they got into such a mess.

You could say that it just shows the problem with totalitarianism. When you combine religion and politics it means that every political act is sanctioned by God (or your secular equivalent). So of course none of our political actions are wrong or evil or stupid. Because we are talking about God's or History's Truth here.

Anyway, the whole point of the Separation of Powers, and the separation of religion from politics, and the idea of an independent judiciary, and the idea that you really don't want a big government that spends 35 percent of GDP, and all the rest, is that: what if the government, the priesthood, the political judges, the economic czars get it wrong? How do you fix it?

That's the place America is at today. Our ruler are absolutely determined and convinced that the Big Problems are climate change, that requires a complete revolution in energy use, and Systemic Racism, that requires the complete politicizing of education and employment.

But what if they are wrong? What if transforming the energy economy is just as disastrous as Chairman Mao's Great Leap Forward, in which, it is estimated, 30 million Chinese died of starvation? When would we know enough to put a stop to it? How would we stop the political freight train in time?

What if fighting System Racism sets up a race war as the people on the losing end decide they are not going to take it any more?

I just get the feeling that none of the headline people -- or their aides and staffers -- have any idea other than defeating the enemy. That's what people in politics do. That is all they do. That's the only thing they know how to do.

If there's a glorious victory, then history is written by the victors, and it is all about how Washington or Lincoln or FDR or Obama saved the world. If there's a humiliating defeat, then the erstwhile leaders and their lieutenants of the ancien régime are the most evil monsters that ever were. And the history is written, again, by the victors, whoever they are. But whoever they are, they just saved the planet.

What the Heck is Politics About Anyway?

Here's a piece about Blair and Clinton and how brilliant they were back in the day, by John F. Harris at Politico. He remembers covering a joint press conference of the two at Downing Street in the Nineties.

I was a White House reporter at the time, and the news conference remains one of my vivid memories in six years covering Clinton’s presidency. 

Hmm. I wonder why that would be? Anyway, here's what he thinks of Blair and Clinton and their "Third Way."

The problem with traditional liberalism was that it was stuck in a rut — more responsive to its interest groups than the broader public interest, insufficiently attuned to the imperative of economic growth. The problem with the post-Reagan, post-Thatcher right was that it had turned brutish and backward-looking — enmeshed in racial and sexual prejudice, indifferent to the challenge of expanding opportunity to people who didn’t already count as society’s winners.

And today, 30 years after those heady days -- for John F. Harris, at least -- things are dark.

Blair and Clinton were describing the world as a fundamentally hopeful place. Now we have had nearly a generation of real-world experience with that century — marked by war, climate change, virulent nationalism, tribalistic identity politics and a malevolent media ecosystem trafficking in misinformation, commercialized contempt and nihilism.

I was reading a piece a couple days ago with a similar cast, about the glories of the politics of defending Social Security and securing rights for workers. 

OK, so let's do a counternarrative. Suppose the whole Blair Clinton "Third Way" was a lie, a clumsy attempt to rescue the big-government welfare state from oblivion. How would we know? For instance, what has the Democratic Party or the British Labour Party done recently about, say, the white working class allegedly "dying of despair?" They certainly don't count as "society's winners." But what has the progressive world done for them lately, except stigmatize them as white oppressors and supremacists and racists?

Suppose the generation of "war, climate change, virulent nationalism" etc. is a consequence of the collapse of the lie of Blair and Clinton? War? Well, was beating up the Muslims in the Middle East such a good idea? Back in the day, progessives and "Third Way" chappies were down with that. Climate change? Er, could you show me just how climate has changed, significantly, truthfully, so that it required a gigantic government program to save the world? Virulent nationalism? Do you think it might have something to do with Enoch Powell's judgement that the European Union could not work because it has no demos, no European people? Thus the peoples of Europe rally around, and identify with, the nation states to which they feel they belong. The problem is not the peoples of Europe; the problem is chaps like John F. Harris that sneer at nation states and thus naturally sneer at nationalism and patriotism as "virulent."

Suppose the glorious fight for Social Security and the rights of workers has resulted in the "dying of despair" of which we've heard tell? Because pensions are thing that ought to be outside politics, and workers' rights mean nothing if there isn't an economy to produce products and services that can provide the economic basis of worker prosperity.

Let's take another tack. How would the world be different if the progressive movement and rights for workers and Bismarckian pensions had never happened?

Or let's put it this way. Suppose that the government enacted rights for agricultural workers in 1400? Do you think it would have made a blind bit of difference over the next 400 years as peasants starved with the end of the agricultural era up until starving peasants started moving into the the cities because that's were the jobs were?

Suppose, after passing the Social Security Act in 1935 the US had got into World War II and lost the war. Do you think that there would have been any Social Security checks for old geezers like me? Suppose the Ukrainians lose their war against Putin's Russia? Do you think that workers' rights and the "Third Way" will make a blind bit of difference to the vengeance of Putin on Ukraine and the Ukrainians?

The reason that the Labour Party spawned Tony Blair and the Democratic Party spawned Bill Clinton was that the voters hated the lefty politics that came before them. So Blair and Clinton muddied the waters and said they were new and improved, a Third Way between left and right, New Democrats that had learned their lessons from the Reagan years.

But, of course, after Blair and after Clinton the two parties returned to their roots. And their roots are that politics is the way to save the world. And anyone that opposes their brilliant ideas to save the world are their enemies and must be destroyed.

Yes, politics requires an enemy. If you are going to save the workers then you promise to fight against the employers. If you are going to save women then you promise to fight the patriarchs. If you are going to save the blacks then you promise to fight the white racists. If you are going to save the gays then you promise to fight the homophobes. And that is all.

But does all this fighting actually help the helpless victims on behalf of whom the fight is joined?

Probably not. But don't mention that to John F. Harris or any of your wokey friends.

Economics 075 for Uncle Joey

President Joe Biden is pretty good at preposterous stories about his storied past. With the latest being that he almost went to the Naval Academy.

One thing I haven't yet heard from him was how he schooled Milton Friedman back in college when little Joey took Economics 101.

Today I am reading Veronique de Rugy on Biden & Co's "magical economics." It's a good line, because if you have half a brain you have to think: what was the BIden team thinking? Maybe they needed a dose of Economics 075 from yours truly. I call this Economics 075 to accord with the number of years I have been on Earth and how that experience has taught me a lesson or two.

Lesson One: Money, money, money. If you look at the time series of M2 money at St. Louis Fed's FRED database, you will see that M2 has gone from $15.5 trillion at the end of 2019 to $22 trillion on May 2, 2022. That is up 42 percent in less that 2 1/2 years. Can you spell inflation, Joey?

Lesson Two: Spend till you Bend. Federal spending in FY 2019 was $4.4 trillion. In FY 2022 it is budgeted at $5.8 trillion. That is up 32 percent in three years. You really think that increasing spending makes America more prosperous, instead of just shoveling money at Democratic voters? I gotta bridge, Joey.

Lesson Three: "Incredible Transition." President Joe Biden has represented the sharply higher fossil-fuel energy prices as part of an "incredible transition" to clean energy. Personally, based on my Four Laws, I believe that such a government-driven transformation of energy production and use is bound to end in disaster. Because, as Stalin and Mao and other lefties have demonstrated in double-blind experiments, Socialism Does Not Work. And nor does any top-down economic policy. The market economy, the social cooperation between producers and consumers, is a discovery process that changes direction every single hour of every single day. Top down ukases never work. They are useful only in wars, which always result in a staggering net loss of human welfare.

I believe that the social experiment of the last century, an experiment in the top-down supervision of humans by educated visionaries and expert administrators, is proving to be a great folly that has visited, in its worst aspects in Soviet Russia and Maoist China, unimaginable horrors and miseries. And in the case of the western democracies it has birthed a society of jolly good fun for educated folk but not so much fun for the ordinary middle class, and a definite downer for the lower class, where the men don't work much and the women don't marry much.

I think that the administration of Uncle Joey shows that the educated ruling class really has No Idea what a mess it has created, and that the worst is yet to come. It has No Idea that almost everything it proposes is most likely to Make Things Worse for ordinary people and crater the lives of the lower orders.

So my Three Point Plan for America and the world is:

First: get back to a money tied to gold or some other entity that can't be manipulated by government. Except during and after a war. Because post-war deflation is Not Good.

Second: reduce government spending to a maximum of 20 percent of GDP, with most "entitlement programs" replaced by genuine savings programs by and for individuals.

Third: Stop pretending that the ruling class has a clue about anything from climate to racism. Return to a society where law is not something manipulated by the Supreme Court and religion is not ruling-class woke ideology.

Is this Economics and this modest Three Point Progam too much to ask of our august rulers?