When I was a lad, I came to the United States in 1968 and of course I was a Democrat. I went to a Humphrey rally in Seattle at the old Arena in the Seattle Center.
But Nixon won.
Then, four years later I remember watching PBS as they lovingly attended George McGovern at his family's summer place right before the Democratic National Convention.
Then Nixon won 60-40.
I started to think that maybe there was something here that I didn't understand.
By 1976 I was a US citizen and I voted for President Ford.
In 1980 I attended a Republican presidential caucus out in the suburbs leaning to Bush, and was startled by the Reagan contingent, of men that looked like they were technicians of some kind.
So really, nothing has changed. We still have rich kids going to college and getting radicalized by their lefty professors, and rioting in the streets. And we still have the white working class and the ordinary middle class who want nothing to do with rich kids playing at revolution in the street.
I am talking about Black Lives Matter and Antifa. These groups are not the desperate cry of the downtrodden masses, but rich kids playing politics with other peoples' lives, as rich kids have always done down the ages, whether Harry Percy mixing it up with Prince Hal or Karl Marx issuing a fatwa against capitalism.
The question is: will the Left walk off a cliff like it did in the Sixties and Seventies? Or will it be different this time?
The answer of course is that history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Let us look at it this way. Leftism is the religion of the educated classes in the West. The Sixties was an eruption of left-wing secular-religious enthusiasm that was not shared by the average American. It took two Nixon presidential wins, and two Reagan wins and one Bush win before the Democrats realized that they had to tack back to the middle, with the most talented politician of his generation, Bill Clinton.
Looking back it is pretty obvious that, once Bill Clinton was elected, the educated class started moving back left. Because it's their religion. The left demonized George W. Bush just like they demonized Richard Nixon.
Then came Barack Obama, sold as a bright young moderate African American, although we now know that we was pretty far left. I dare say that if Obama hadn't been African American his leftist policies would have led to defeat in 2012. But to oppose Obama meant that you were a racist, and so Obama won reelection, but with less of a majority that in 2008.
So now we have a Republican president reviled by the left, again, and one that the left is openly proposing to impeach, again.
So, if history rhymes, we should expect that it will take five or six presidential elections before the Democrats get the message, again.
Here's what I think. I think that the reality of modern democratic politics is bribing the electorate. Arch-conservative Lord Salisbury, Prime Minister of Britain in the late 19th century knew this, and was happy to pass a free-education bill right before an election to garner working-class votes.
But I think that the ruling class wrinkles its nose at this unpleasant smell. It would rather inhale the sweet smell of noble intent: to rescue women and minorities from exploitation; to save the planet from climate change. It would rather not think of the reality of its entitlement politics.
But really governing is just the shabby deal of bribing the electorate with their own money, and giving the scions of the ruling class cool jobs in the State Department or the EPA.
And the average voter just wants a quiet life unperturbed by wars and financial crashes.
You can see that there is a profound gulf between the agenda of the ruling class and the ordinary voter. The ruling class wants to strut and fret its hour upon the stage; the voter just wants a quiet life improved by some free stuff from the government.
Who will win out this time? Nobody knows.
But Nixon won.
Then, four years later I remember watching PBS as they lovingly attended George McGovern at his family's summer place right before the Democratic National Convention.
Then Nixon won 60-40.
I started to think that maybe there was something here that I didn't understand.
By 1976 I was a US citizen and I voted for President Ford.
In 1980 I attended a Republican presidential caucus out in the suburbs leaning to Bush, and was startled by the Reagan contingent, of men that looked like they were technicians of some kind.
So really, nothing has changed. We still have rich kids going to college and getting radicalized by their lefty professors, and rioting in the streets. And we still have the white working class and the ordinary middle class who want nothing to do with rich kids playing at revolution in the street.
I am talking about Black Lives Matter and Antifa. These groups are not the desperate cry of the downtrodden masses, but rich kids playing politics with other peoples' lives, as rich kids have always done down the ages, whether Harry Percy mixing it up with Prince Hal or Karl Marx issuing a fatwa against capitalism.
The question is: will the Left walk off a cliff like it did in the Sixties and Seventies? Or will it be different this time?
The answer of course is that history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Let us look at it this way. Leftism is the religion of the educated classes in the West. The Sixties was an eruption of left-wing secular-religious enthusiasm that was not shared by the average American. It took two Nixon presidential wins, and two Reagan wins and one Bush win before the Democrats realized that they had to tack back to the middle, with the most talented politician of his generation, Bill Clinton.
Looking back it is pretty obvious that, once Bill Clinton was elected, the educated class started moving back left. Because it's their religion. The left demonized George W. Bush just like they demonized Richard Nixon.
Then came Barack Obama, sold as a bright young moderate African American, although we now know that we was pretty far left. I dare say that if Obama hadn't been African American his leftist policies would have led to defeat in 2012. But to oppose Obama meant that you were a racist, and so Obama won reelection, but with less of a majority that in 2008.
So now we have a Republican president reviled by the left, again, and one that the left is openly proposing to impeach, again.
So, if history rhymes, we should expect that it will take five or six presidential elections before the Democrats get the message, again.
Here's what I think. I think that the reality of modern democratic politics is bribing the electorate. Arch-conservative Lord Salisbury, Prime Minister of Britain in the late 19th century knew this, and was happy to pass a free-education bill right before an election to garner working-class votes.
But I think that the ruling class wrinkles its nose at this unpleasant smell. It would rather inhale the sweet smell of noble intent: to rescue women and minorities from exploitation; to save the planet from climate change. It would rather not think of the reality of its entitlement politics.
But really governing is just the shabby deal of bribing the electorate with their own money, and giving the scions of the ruling class cool jobs in the State Department or the EPA.
And the average voter just wants a quiet life unperturbed by wars and financial crashes.
You can see that there is a profound gulf between the agenda of the ruling class and the ordinary voter. The ruling class wants to strut and fret its hour upon the stage; the voter just wants a quiet life improved by some free stuff from the government.
Who will win out this time? Nobody knows.