Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Harriet Miers Goes to Sea


Some months ago Peggy Noonan warned that, at this stage of an administration, the White House staff are suffering from extreme exhaustion. That’s why they produce boners like the Harriet Miers nomination and the east coast port deal. So this morning we get the report from the Associated Press that the president didn’t even know about the decision by an administration committee to allow operation of six US east coast ports by Dubai Ports, a state-owned company.

Well, at least the Bush haters are happy about that.

OK. Let’s admit that there could be a security risk if Middle East owned companies own US ports. They might permit someone to smuggle in a nuclear device in a container.

But the port deal merely shows the natural vulnerability of an open society to a sneak attack. A modern democratic capitalist economy runs on trust, a network of trust. That is what makes it different from the tribal, mistrustful world of Islam.

But the world of trust is not as vulnerable as it might seem. It is worth billions, trillions, to be included in the circle of trust. That is why people bring their money to the United States to invest.

Centuries ago, at the battle of Lepanto in 1571, the Holy League fleet defeated the Ottoman Turks. As the victors looted the galleys of the defeated Turks they were shocked to find fortunes in precious metals and jewels aboard the ships of the Ottoman admirals. These men had to keep their fortunes close by because their monies could be seized at any time by the Sultan. But in the trust economy of the west, rich merchants could already enjoy security of property from expropriation. They could keep their money in a bank.

Things have not really changed that much in the last 400 years. That is why the West is a lot more powerful than we think. And that is why, even though it is sensible to protect the trust relationships in our trading system, the folks from Dubai need us more than we need them.

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Harvard Faculty to Larry Summers: You're Outta Here!

So that’s it. Lawrence Summers is to step down at the end of the academic year as president of Harvard University, as reported in Reuters and The Washington Post.

Obviously, the opposition against Larry Summers was not just that he blasphemed the prophet about sacred scripture. No it was not just about innate abilities of men and women to do science (or to want to do science).

Nor was it just that Summers apparently eased out “the arts and sciences dean William Kirby, on January 27,” deepening opposition to him in the faculty.

No it probably goes deeper than that, and no doubt we will find out about the real reason in the next days and months.

No doubt it will come down to out-and-out opposition in the faculty to taking orders from anyone.

It’s not just Harvard. The big gorilla in the room in America is the question of the entire non-profit sector, from government to foundations to universities. Unlike evil corporations, the non-profit sector is run by its employees for their benefit. And there is no effective way to reform it.

Our government is essentially unreformed since the 1930s. Our schools and universities are unreformed since the turn of the twentieth century. Our foundations are unreformed for decades.

That means that when reform comes, as it will, as it must, it is going to be painful. That is what happens when the incumbents have the power to stop change.

And it won’t be painful just for the proud and the powerful who have run the non-profit sector for so long for their own benefit. We’ll all end up paying the price. The proud and the powerful will see to that.

What If..."Catholics Riot over Da Vinci Code"

We all seem to take for granted that millions of Muslims all over the world naturally take to the streets when a couple of obscure Danish cartoonists insult their faith by depicting the prophet Mohammed with a bomb in his hair.

But imagine if Catholics were rioting all over the world about Dan Brown’s The Da Vinci Code the best-selling thriller that depicts Opus Dei as a dangerous and ruthless force, condoned by the pope, bent on supressing the real truth about Jesus.

Imagine no more. David Aaronovitch has done it for you. “In a parallel universe...”

Cardinal Loopi, of the Office of the Defence of the Faith, condemned the book for defaming Catholicism and, in its suggestion that Jesus Christ was married, of heresy. “We demand that the book be destroyed and that the author be punished,” said Loopi, “otherwise we cannot be held responsible for how Catholics throughout the world may react.”

Quite so. Who could blame those Catholics for expressing their “rage,” as the media likes to say? News items like this would be routine:

Bookseller shot dead in Poland, by teenager shouting: “For God, and the Pope!”


Ten killed in Lisbon Dan Brown riots, when police opened fire on mob ransacking the Canadian Embassy. “We thought he was Canadian,” says riot leader.

It would be comical if it weren’t so serious. Read the whole thing.

Monday, February 20, 2006

National Savings Down, But National Wealth Up. Explain


Last year the US savings rate was the lowest since the Great Depression, according to the Associated Press. And that was on top of the huge balance of payments deficit and the Federal government deficit.

How long can this go on? As long as you like, according to supply-side economist Alan Reynolds. That’s because even though people didn’t put more cash in the bank, national wealth went up. Writes Reynolds:

In last year’s third quarter, the Fed’s measure of household net worth amounted to $51.1 trillion -- up more than $5 trillion from a year earlier.

Even though Americans didn’t put anything in the piggy bank, national wealth went up 10 percent. And that’s the point. People save money to add to their wealth. If their wealth is already going up, because of increases in their 401(k) and the real estate market, they can meet their wealth goals without reducing consumption.

Is that a problem? Well, you tell me, senator.

By the way, household net worth “measures assets minus debts,” in case you were worried about the debt explosion.

Here’s something else that Reynolds points out.

To put one year’s $5 trillion wealth gain in perspective, personal income was just $9 trillion after taxes. Even if we had saved half of all personal income, that could not have added as much to household net worth as was, in fact, added.

Let’s put it in personal terms. If you earned $90,000 last year in salary and your home value and your 401(k) went up by $50,000, why would you be worried that you hadn’t put another $10,000 into savings?

People start to save when the economy turns south, as they should. But don’t expect the chaps at Associated Press to understand that.

Sunday, February 19, 2006

WSJ Sneers at Newt


First Newt Gingrich was a dangerous “bombthrower.” Then he was the bombastic Speaker of the House of Representatives. Then he was a guy who just talked too much.

Now apparently, the former Speaker is just a figure of fun, as Brian M. Carney sneers at Newt’s office, Newt’s chairs, and Newt’s proposals for this year’s elections.

So what is Newt proposing? He wants the Republicans to cut “down on earmarks and pork-barrel spending” by publishing conference reports on the web so that all the bloggers in the country can find the earmarks. “He’d also `simply ban all fund-raising in Washington. You can do that by straight out rules of the House and Senate.’”

Sounds pretty nifty to me.

Newt has lots of ideas to push Republican reforms and gin up the Republican base, but Carnes can’t get a word in edgeways.

But Newt is positive that if Republicans get their act together and put together sensible reform plans that are straightforward and easy for people to understand, they can win in the Fall.

So if you’re asking me, is it possible to be inarticulate, confused and uncertain and win a major policy battle, the answer is no. Do I think the president, the House and the Senate--if they systematically went to the country and laid out a positive plan that would make more sense--could they win? The answer is yes.


Do I think it’s possible to offer a Social Security plan for people under 40 years of age in a positive savings account model that you could pass? Yes. Do I think it’s possible to make it so complicated, so impossible to understand that you can’t build any momentum for it? Yes.

Years ago, someone published a cartoon of a long filing cabinet with each drawer labeled “Newt’s Ideas.” On the end was a single cabinet with drawers labeled “Newt’s Good Ideas.” Very jolly. But many of us grasp that the only way to good ideas is by slogging through drifts of “ideas.” Ideas are easy. Good ideas are hard.

And you can say this for Newt Gingrich. As he slogs away at his pile of ideas, there’s a chance he might come up with one good one. Then you can put him down as a genius.

Friday, February 17, 2006

Islamic World Choosing Segregation from West


When African Americans first started entering selective colleges in significant numbers after the civil rights revolution of the 1960s they found that they were ill-prepared for the challenge of life at the top and they were ashamed. They were ashamed because they were confronted, as Shelby Steele writes in The Content of Our Character, with overcoming in their own lives, right then and there, the centuries-old myth of racial inferiority. Were they good enough, could they make it in competition with the white kids? So they adopted the defensive strategy of keeping themselves apart, of segregating themselves in the cafeteria, of pressuring college administrations for minority dorms, and in general aggressive behavior.

And they held themselves back from full participation in the great American experiment.

Now we are seeing the same behavior in the Islamic Middle East, reported by Daniel Pipes. The cartoon war, he feels is going to hurt, not the west, but the Islamic world.

I predict it is helping bring on not a clash of civilizations but their mutual pulling apart. This separation, which has been building for years, has dreadful implications.

The sectors involved include trade, consumer items, financial investments, aid, and tourism. The problem is that, just like the African Americans held back by centuries of slavery and discrimination, the Islamic world needs not separation but full involvement in—indeed surrender to—the culture of the west with its magic brew of reason, capitalism, and democracy.

Disengagement will only worsen the Muslim predicament. Reduced contact with the world’s most modern, powerful, and advanced countries would likely cause Muslims to do even worse in those indexes and lapse deeper into a condition characterized by self-pity, jealousy, resentment, anger, and aggression.

Compare the Islamic attitude with the Chinese, reported by Michael Novak in his review of Rodney Stark’s The Victory of Reason. For a century or more the Chinese have been cudgeling their brains about the rise of the west. What is it, they have asked themselves? Why has the west overtaken China, the most advanced country in the world, and put China to shame? The answer, they concluded, was Christianity.

At first, we thought it was because you had more powerful guns than we had. Then we thought it was because you had the best political system. Next we focused on your economic system. But in the past twenty years, we have realized that the heart of your culture is your religion: Christianity. That is why the West is so powerful. The Christian moral foundation of social and cultural life was what made possible the emergence of capitalism and then the successful transition to democratic politics. We don’t have any doubt about this.

So the Chinese are converting in their tens of millions to Christianity, as told by David Aikman in Jesus in Beijing.

If that is true then the Islamic world is in deeper trouble than we thought. And they have an additional problem. They lack the cultural confidence of the Chinese, the knowledge that China is the first and the best of all civilizations.

Thursday, February 16, 2006

After Cheney Tantrum Is MSM Still Relevant?


Will the Bush Administration get away with stiff-arming the Mainstream Media over the Cheney shooting incident?

Obviously, the tactics after the hunting accident, in which Vice President Cheney shot lawyer Harry Whittington Saturday afternoon, were intended to keep the whole thing low key. But the Vice President and the White House miscalculated over one thing. They did not forsee that the MSM White House corps would go ballistic over the insult to their customary right to be the first to report on White House matters.

Or did they? Could they be that smart? Did they figure that the MSM would spend the next week in outrage, proving the adage that hell hath no fury like, let’s say, a prima donna scorned? No, surely not. They called the local Corpus Christi newspaper in order to slide the news of the accident into the public consciousness gently. Next thing they knew, the MSM went ballistic.

But when on Wednesday the vice president gave an exclusive interview to Fox News, the administration insulted the fading CNN, which thought that they should have got in on the action.

And the Democrats are in on the act too. They are outraged too. But then they are outraged about everything.

At least the Washington Post is staying on an even keel and reporting the news pretty straight. After all, the real takeaway is the vice president’s statement:

"Ultimately, I’m the guy who pulled the trigger and fired the round that hit Harry," Cheney said in a hastily arranged White House interview with Fox News Channel anchor Brit Hume. "And you can talk about all of the other conditions that existed at the time, but that’s the bottom line. And there’s no -- it was not Harry’s fault. You can’t blame anybody else. I’m the guy who pulled the trigger and shot my friend. And I say that is something I’ll never forget."

It’s something to think about. That the story is about Dick Cheney accidentally shooting his friend, not about the wounded feelings of insulted news media celebrities.

The question is: Can the Bushies get away with this? Can they ignore the wails and the ragings of the MSM?

If they can, it will be another sign that the world is changing, that a new world is aborning.