Everybody says they are on the side of science. But the other guys are led by superstition.
Then there are the guys that say they believe in logic and reason, while the other guys are ruled by their feelings.
But I think it is pretty clear, from the experience of the last two months of Wu Flu, that humans are ruled by the notions that are in the wind, particularly the notions that are being ventilated in their particular ideological bubble.
For instance, what I would call the standard line of the epidemiologists, that in any epidemic, you eventually need to get to "herd immunity" was all very well in the abstract, but when politicians got the word -- from flawed epidemiological models -- that millions might die unless we "do something" they opted, from President Trump on down, to do something, from canceling flights from China and Europe to closing bars and restaurants and schools and "non-essential" businesses.
And beaches!
How much science was involved in all that? Not much, I would say. (OK the science of telephoto lenses was involved in the beach closings). Why so little science? Because humans are not driven by science and logic and reason but by memes, maxims and aphorisms floating around social media and amplified by news media and politicians.
And this is not scandalous. It is because humans live and act in the here and now, and cannot spend half their lives researching the evidence and the science. They conduct their lives using notions they got from their parents, from their peers, from school, from media, from politicians. And most of the time -- almost all of the time -- it works pretty well.
This is most obvious if we think of the higher animals that don't have the conceit of a "conscious mind" or science and reason. How do they live? Yes, how do they live without our triumphant reason and science? Well, they do OK. They go about their business as we do, and if something unexpected happens they stop what they are doing and deal with the unexpected. Exactly as we do.
And when you think about it, this animal behavior is exactly what we do. We putter about in our routines as unconcernedly as seagulls, and then stop dead in our tracks if something unexpected happens. Do we then apply science and reason? Not really. If anything we call up our friends, or we turn on the news, or we take a look at social media. And then we act, or don't act. So, how much reason and science went into that? Not much? Exactly what you'd expect from social animals; we take our clues from our fellow social creatures.
Now in the United States in the present time we also take our cues from our political tribe. Liberals and experts are clearly going big time for an administrative solution with rigid rules and instructions from on high and nobody moves without permission. Conservatives and small-business people are clearly more in favor of people making their own decisions about what is appropriate.
And hanging over all is the basic instinct that government is there to protect us.
But there is another thing that comes out clearly to me, that a lot of what we call "science" is really thinly veiled prophecy and divination. Would you be insulted if I suggested that modern science is really the heir to religious prophecy and fortune-telling. La Wik:
Should we be discouraged that opinion rules and not science? Not at all. Opinion is really processed science, knowledge boiled down to maxims and rules of thumb. The better they are, the more people will adopt them. But there is still, and will always be, a "marketplace of ideas," where people pick and choose what rule of thumb should work for them.
In the best of all possible worlds, the good ideas will win out in the end, and the bad ideas will fall by the wayside. And so they do, in the end.
But in the meanwhile, people are really attached to the ideas that they have adopted, and it often takes a real blow to the solar plexus, metaphorically speaking, before people will abandon a particular rule of thumb that isn't working out so well.
As we see every day.
Then there are the guys that say they believe in logic and reason, while the other guys are ruled by their feelings.
But I think it is pretty clear, from the experience of the last two months of Wu Flu, that humans are ruled by the notions that are in the wind, particularly the notions that are being ventilated in their particular ideological bubble.
For instance, what I would call the standard line of the epidemiologists, that in any epidemic, you eventually need to get to "herd immunity" was all very well in the abstract, but when politicians got the word -- from flawed epidemiological models -- that millions might die unless we "do something" they opted, from President Trump on down, to do something, from canceling flights from China and Europe to closing bars and restaurants and schools and "non-essential" businesses.
And beaches!
How much science was involved in all that? Not much, I would say. (OK the science of telephoto lenses was involved in the beach closings). Why so little science? Because humans are not driven by science and logic and reason but by memes, maxims and aphorisms floating around social media and amplified by news media and politicians.
And this is not scandalous. It is because humans live and act in the here and now, and cannot spend half their lives researching the evidence and the science. They conduct their lives using notions they got from their parents, from their peers, from school, from media, from politicians. And most of the time -- almost all of the time -- it works pretty well.
This is most obvious if we think of the higher animals that don't have the conceit of a "conscious mind" or science and reason. How do they live? Yes, how do they live without our triumphant reason and science? Well, they do OK. They go about their business as we do, and if something unexpected happens they stop what they are doing and deal with the unexpected. Exactly as we do.
And when you think about it, this animal behavior is exactly what we do. We putter about in our routines as unconcernedly as seagulls, and then stop dead in our tracks if something unexpected happens. Do we then apply science and reason? Not really. If anything we call up our friends, or we turn on the news, or we take a look at social media. And then we act, or don't act. So, how much reason and science went into that? Not much? Exactly what you'd expect from social animals; we take our clues from our fellow social creatures.
Now in the United States in the present time we also take our cues from our political tribe. Liberals and experts are clearly going big time for an administrative solution with rigid rules and instructions from on high and nobody moves without permission. Conservatives and small-business people are clearly more in favor of people making their own decisions about what is appropriate.
And hanging over all is the basic instinct that government is there to protect us.
But there is another thing that comes out clearly to me, that a lot of what we call "science" is really thinly veiled prophecy and divination. Would you be insulted if I suggested that modern science is really the heir to religious prophecy and fortune-telling. La Wik:
Divination can be seen as a systematic method with which to organize what appear to be disjointed, random facets of existence such that they provide insight into a problem at hand.Am I right, or am I right? The point about science is that it is a very systematic method "with which to organize... facets of existence." But it is also true that it is much easier to predict the trajectory of a moon rocket than the behavior of a modern consumer. Or to predict the future, or the stock market, or elections. Or an epidemic.
Should we be discouraged that opinion rules and not science? Not at all. Opinion is really processed science, knowledge boiled down to maxims and rules of thumb. The better they are, the more people will adopt them. But there is still, and will always be, a "marketplace of ideas," where people pick and choose what rule of thumb should work for them.
In the best of all possible worlds, the good ideas will win out in the end, and the bad ideas will fall by the wayside. And so they do, in the end.
But in the meanwhile, people are really attached to the ideas that they have adopted, and it often takes a real blow to the solar plexus, metaphorically speaking, before people will abandon a particular rule of thumb that isn't working out so well.
As we see every day.
I want to thank Dr Emu a very powerful spell caster who help me to bring my husband back to me, few month ago i have a serious problem with my husband, to the extend that he left the house, and he started dating another woman and he stayed with the woman, i tried all i can to bring him back, but all my effort was useless until the day my friend came to my house and i told her every thing that had happened between me and my husband, then she told me of a powerful spell caster who help her when she was in the same problem I then contact Dr Emu and told him every thing and he told me not to worry my self again that my husband will come back to me after he has cast a spell on him, i thought it was a joke, after he had finish casting the spell, he told me that he had just finish casting the spell, to my greatest surprise within 48 hours, my husband really came back begging me to forgive him, if you need his help you can contact him with via email: Emutemple@gmail.com or add him up on his whatsapp +2347012841542 is willing to help any body that need his help.
ReplyDeleteFor more details about Dr Emu visit his Website: http://emutemple.website2.me/