Thursday, March 12, 2020

Keeping a Proper Distance: A Strategy for Foreign Policy

About four years ago this crazy orange-haired businessman ran for President of the United States on a platform of putting America First. As Conservative Tree House puts it, this whacky guy proposed:
  1. The U.S. needed to have control over our borders, and a greater ability to control who was migrating to the United States.  A shift toward stopping ‘illegal’ migration.
  2. The U.S. needed to stop the manufacture of goods overseas and return critical manufacturing back to the United States.  A return to economic independence.
  3. The U.S. needed to decouple from an over-reliance on Chinese industrial and consumer products.  China viewed as a geopolitical and economic risk.
Well I Never! Whaddya think of that, here in the US and A on March 12, 2020?

What I want to know is: who is the brains trust behind President Trump? Is it really Trump himself? Or his son-in-law Jared Kushner? Or who or what?

Because today it looks almost like divine intervention, the old saw about God taking care of children, drunks, and the good old US of A.

The alternative is to accept that Donald Trump has an astonishing strategic mind. And that is impossible, right, geniuses?

The point is that Trump has been pretty cagey about a lot of things. We were all taught to believe that his 2016 campaign was a complete amateur hour. Then, after the election, Brad Parscale appeared on FoxNews and talked about their social-media campaign and how they targeted this and that, and so on.

What! I thought that Trump was supposed to be totally winging it. And yet managed to target exactly the states that put him over the top -- with the help of Parscale who was creating websites at the Trump Organization back in the day.

Now, with the "foreign virus" -- yeah! Call me a xenophobe! -- he is looking like a genius. What! You mean to say that nearly all our antibiotics are made in China? Who knew? We oughta do something about that!

When you look at the three principles listed by CTS above, you see that Trump is arguing for a certain distance between the US and other nations.

But the question is: how distant? I have an idea.

Take President Putin's latest announcement, that allows him two more terms as president of Russia. I'd say that the US needs to keep a distance from nations that have presidents-for-life. Nothing personal, you understand.

So that would also mean we keep a distance from China, with President-for-life Xi.

Nothing personal, you understand. Nothing xenophobic. Heavens no. It's just that any guy that signs himself up to be president for life is missing the point. In fact he is dumb as a post, and dangerous for that reason.

You see, politics is a blunt instrument, basically designed to defend the border from the baddies. It doesn't take a genius to do that. But the dirty secret about border defense is that the defenders expect to be paid for their trouble: loot and plunder. So the longer the current leader gets to run the border-defense racket the deeper will be the corruption of his regime.

And since politics is usually a succession of one stupidity after another, it can't hurt to change one idiot for another.

Plus, we democratic societies have found, after about a decade of one chap in power, the voters start to feel it is Time for a Change.

So we Yanks should keep regimes at arm's length that go in for president for life or for mullahs for life. Just not our kind, darling.

Here's something to think about. How about the European Union, that seems to be a bureaucracy for life? Yeah. Good point, senator. Maybe we should keep a certain distance from those chaps too. Not as much as the presidents-for-life, of course, but still...

Here is my thought on politics. In chimpanzee society it makes sense to defend the border to the death, because the whole troop depends on the food -- and baby-chimp -- growing capacity of the troop's territory. That is according to Nicholas Wade in Before the Dawn. But as soon as you get humans on the job the absolute necessity for enough food on the land becomes less important, because humans trade, and human trade seems to go back about 200,000 years before even the Dawn of Agriculture.

Still, right through the agricultural era, the basis of wealth and security was food-growing land with a bit of trading on the side. So humans put a high priority on defense of the homeland.

But now, food is something you put on grain ships in the harbor of Vancouver, BC, and send across the world.

But do you see? The less that the food-growing capacity of our sacred land equals survival the less we need warriors on the border and charismatic leaders to lead them.

Put it in a different way: the less important food-growing becomes to our well-being, the less we need brave warriors and a warrior elite to protect us.

Thus, to say that a President Putin is so essential that he must stay as president into his 80s is baloney. Russia doesn't need to be led by a charismatic leader. Same with China. Just get on with producing stuff and selling it. And never mind being the charismatic leader.

But whatabout the danger of Donald Trump, the charismatic leader?

Good point. But see, here in these United States we have a Constitutional Amendment restricting presidents to two terms. And we also have a cultural and political elite that would take poison rather than allow Trump a third term.

So, no worries. And anyway, I dare say that Trump will have a recession in his second term, and everyone will agree that we need the Democrats in office again.

And in 2021 Trump will leave office and everyone will live happily ever after.

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