Iraq: After the Americans Leave

Conservatives think that when the United States leaves Iraq that all hell will break loose, and maybe it will.

But this article from StrategyPage shows that behind all the bombs and explosions there is a slow motion civil war and sorting out process going on.

Several years of having a Shia majority running the country has instilled a confidence in the Shia community that has not been felt in generations.

Of course there’s the question of Iranian influence.  But the Iraqi Shias  are beginning to think "we can do this."  Maybe they can survive without Iran.

Another interesting thought is what “counter-insurgency” will look like after the Americans leave.  Think Hamat in Syria.

But with U.S. troops gone, the Iraqi security forces will be inclined to wage war the traditional way. That means massive use of firepower against civilians in any neighborhood where the Sunni Arab terrorists show up, or are found. In Syria, the 1982 uprising by Islamic radicals was put down, in part, by the destruction of the town of Hamat, and the massacre of over 10,000 civilians there. That was meant as a message to the rebels.

It’s a message that everyone in the Middle East remembers, and a tradition that everyone understands.  And once the Americans leave, “that will no longer be a problem.”