On Election Day

It’s Election Day and pundit John Podhoretz admits that “nobody knows anything.”

All the polling and prognosticating ends up being what it says it is, polling and prognosticaing.

What really matters is what the polls find so hard to measure: intensity and commitment.

Meanwhile, Iowa Electronic Markets is pretty clear about the outcome. Today’s prices show about a 70% chance that the Republicans keep the Senate and 80% chance that the Democrats take the House.

You can see the graph of historical prices for the House here. It shows about a 50-50 split until early October when a clear trend for a Democratic win started emerging. The market has stabilized at 80% chance of Democratic takeover for about a week.

The graph of historical prices for the Senate is here. It shows about a 75% chance of Republicans holding the upper house, tightening to about 70% in the last month.

So now all we need to do is go out and vote. And wait for the results.