Negotiations with Iran: What's Up?

What is going on? In The New York Times Michael Slackman and David E. Sanger report that Iran has invited the United States to hold negotiations on “how to halt sectarian violence and restore calm in Iraq.”

So what does this mean? Does it mean that Iran feels that they have the whip hand in Iraq and that the militias they have sponsored have the power to take over? Are they offering the United States a face-saving way to get out of an untenable position? Iran’s man Ali Larijani said

"I think Iraq is a good testing ground for America to take a harder look at the way it acts," Mr. Larijani said in his office shortly after making the announcement. "If there's a determination in America to take that hard look, then we're prepared to help."

Or do they see that the new political and security establishment in Baghdad is gradually stabilizing Iraq and that they need to get some sort of a deal with the United States to prevent its power from turning next against them?

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in Sydney, Australia, that talks with Iranian envoys in Baghdad could be "useful" but would be limited to discussions on Iraqi security. "This isn't a negotiation of some kind," she said.

In the Washington Times, as reported by Joseph Curl, it looks like it might be the Iraqis who are pushing the talks.

Iraqi Shi'ite leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim had urged Shi'ite Iran to become involved in the talks in an effort to address U.S. accusations that Iran is meddling in Iraq.


"We will accept the proposal to help resolve the problems in Iraq and establish an independent government there as it was made by Mr. Hakim," said Ali Larijani.

What is going on? Obviously, something is up. But we ordinary mortals don’t know what it is, and probably won’t know for a while.

UPDATE: But here’s an interesting take from James Kurfeld of Newsday. He’s upset that the administration is sounding just like it did in the runup to the Iraq invasion.

It was that same combination of a bellicose National Security Review and saber rattling from Cheney that set the stage for the invasion of Iraq.

Back then it just looked like a threat—until Bush and Cheney actually went ahead and invaded. Kurfeld is afraid that they really mean it this time too.

But suppose that the Iranians agree with Kurfeld. They might want to tame the beast by accomodating the US in Iraq.