Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Suppose Blacks are Now Becoming "Commoners"

Everyone has been shocked, shocked, in recent days by three polls that indicate about 33% support for President Trump among blacks.

What is going on here?

If you are a believer in the Emerging Democratic Majority faith prophesied by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira, that America is going Democrat because blacks, Hispanics, women, young people, educated people, it doesn't make sense.

But suppose, despite what your earnest woke college professors taught you, you are open to other explanations of the meaning of life, the universe, and everything.

Suppose, indeed, like Marx, you explain everything by class. You might try my reductive Three Peoples theory and the notion in my Road to the Middle Class that people move out of the peasant-and-worker class along the four cultural roads of faith, education, mutual aid, and law. My point in Road is that people become middle-class responsibles as they practice enthusiastic Christianity, as they get educated, as they practice mutual aid in fraternal societies, and as they learn to adjudicate disputes through law rather than revenge culture.

But just in the past week I have encountered Curtis Yarvin's theory enunciated in his "Clear Pill" series. Yarvin proposes a three people world, as I do. He calls the three classes: gentry, commoners, and clients.
The gentry are urbanites, cultivated and ambitious; the commoners are suburbanites, educated and independent; the clients are Marx’s proletariat and lumpenproletariat, uneducated and/or dependent.
Usually, there is a class war, and "The natural conflict pits commoners against gentry plus clients." Now, pretty obviously, blacks have been "clients" in recent times, and our liberal gentry have bribed blacks with loot and plunder through its racist policies of affirmative action, quotas, and now diversity and inclusion. And the gentry class has anathematized the commoners as deplorable racist-sexist-homophobes.

But that would work only so long as blacks experienced themselves as dependent victims.

Now the story I like to tell about the modern era is that, in successive waves, the old peasant class has slowly worked its way up from being "clients" of the gentry to being "commoners." The quintessential commoners, for me, are George Eliot's Adam Bede and his incandescent love interest, the Methodist lay preacher Dinah Morris.

And really, why not? Is not the responsible independence of the ordinary middle class a shining star to the dependent and irresponsible serfs, peasants, and workers?

So, it may be that what we are seeing right now is blacks starting to move seriously out of the "client" class into the "commoner" class. It obviously can't hurt that black unemployment is the lowest ever, and that rapper Kanye West is pushing Christianity and Trumpish #MAGAness.

If indeed blacks are moving into the "commoner" class we can expect a lot less interest in voted 90-10 for Democrats.

The basic rule about electoral politics is that people vote for the politician "that cares about people like me."

The reason that Republican voters moved away from Bush-Romney politicians is that they stopped believing that Bush-Romneys cared about people like them. The reason that gentry liberals vote for Obamas and Warrens and Buttigiegs is that Barack Obama and Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg are people like them: educated and holding their opinions and believing in their beliefs. The reason that blacks and Latinos and single women have voted Democratic is that they are subordinate people that look to a strong lord to plunder the Other and hand out the necessary loot to them.

The reason that the educated suburbans have moved away from the Republican Party is that they see the Democratic Party and its big state and its millions of jobs for educated bureaucrats as their kind of party for their kind of people. And I think they are right.

But what our educated gentry are happily unaware of is the verdict of Charles Murray's Coming Apart about white America. That today the top 25%, the educated elite, is doing fine with great careers and merger marriages. That the middle 40% is doing so-so, and in the bottom 35% the men don't work much and the women don't marry much. Imagine what that looks like in non-white America.

Do I have to spell it out? America works great for the educated gentry. For everyone else, not so good. So you would expect that, slowly and in fits and starts, the fundamental injustice suffered by the non-gentry classes would start to emerge into public consciousness and that enterprising politicians would start to notice at put themselves at the head of the crowd.

Obvioulsy, President Trump is appealing to America's commoners. And he is making a clear push to appeal to non-white commoners too. Of course he is. That's where the votes are for him: persuading black and Latino "clients" that they are really "commoners" and that he cares about people like them.

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