Tuesday, December 20, 2016

How Do You Know When the World Has Changed?

I noticed a piece on the Berlin Christmas bombing in the Brit Independent by a leftie writer. He said the bombing had ended "his leftie fantasy about Germany," but if you read the article you can see that nothing has changed for him. Berlin is still the bohemian enclave of Weimar Germany, "a sanctuary for gays, liberals, artists and weirdos of all stripes," but now
The coming days will be a test of openness, understanding and love, and I hope Germany will remain strong. 
Yup. He has learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

The point is, when the world changes, and it is time to go, how do you know? Here is a leftie, experiencing the end of his hopes for a multicultural society starring gays, liberals, artists, and weirdos, and in the bloody mess of terrorist acts he talks of love and openness.

As if the left has ever been in favor of love and openness, except in its conceits. In fact what is needed is a few strategic deportations, just like back in the 1920s: a little Murdstonian "firmness."

Here is Zombie, looking at the political events of the last year and the election of Donald Trump and suggesting that it is a hinge point of history. The whole point of the left's cultural hegemony and its march through the institutions and its complete domination of education and the culture and the bureaucracy was that the electorate would be carefully taught to hate and to fear Trumpism,
And then November 8, 2016 happened, and BOOM: It was all revealed to be a lie. Not only did the indoctrination fail, but the general impression that the relentless indoctrination had always been successful was itself a gigantic meta-deception.
So the questions is -- after the Muslim terror in Europe, after Brexit, after Trump -- have we reached Peak Leftism? Or is this just a correction, as they say of the stock market, with the leftist bull market to resume after a season?

I'm sorry to be pessimistic, but I don't think you can tell. Not now, not yet, and I think this applies also to life, the universe, and everything, in general.

You can see this reflected in every business venture, and every war. How do you know if your business venture is going to succeed or fail? When do you pull the plug on failure, and avoid sending good money after bad?

You really don't, because often persistence pays off, and one more Big Push turns the corner. Or it doesn't and you descend into bankruptcy and ruin.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is writing a book, "Skin in the Game," in which he attempts to apply the lessons of his Black Swan and Antifragile to the notion of avoiding "ruin," so that your mistakes don't wipe you out.

I am not sure that this is possible. I think you can certainly do things to minimize ruin if things go wrong, but I don't think you can guarantee it. Taleb apparently thinks that genetically modified organisms (GMO) are a recipe for disaster and ruin. But are they? He seems to support the Precautionary Principle. But is the Precautionary Principle possible? We can never look around the corner when we start a project, because of the famous unknown unknowns. We can avoid potential ruin by making ourselves "anti-fragile" but we cannot completely avoid the consequences of failure.

Yesterday Donald Trump truly became President-elect when the Electoral College met in the several state capitols and elected him president by a vote of 304-227. Is this a sea-change in US politics, after a business tycoon upended the Republican Party to win its nomination and upended the Democratic Party by appealing to its neglected white working class voters in the Rust Best states? Or is it a mere correction, with politics as usual to resume after an interregnum?

The truth is that We Don't Know. And people will be contesting what happened and the meaning of it for the rest of my lifetime.

Meanwhile, life goes on, and the croupier cries faites vos jeux, place your bets, on the next turn of the wheel.

No comments:

Post a Comment